Officer: Assad wants no peace and no war

A senior officer in the Military Intelligence told Ynet on Monday that Syrian President Bashar Assad's main concern is the survival of his regime, and recent remarks about his readiness to talk peace with Israel are aimed at easing international pressure on Damascus to backtrack on its support for terror groups and seal its border with Iraq.

The officer said Assad's actions point to his deep involvement in terror activities and to his regime's endeavor to hinder peace initiatives in the region.

His membership in the "axis of resistance," the officer said, is inherent in his "strategic allegiance with Iran, their support for Hizbullah, attempts to sabotage United Nations Resolution 1701 and support for Palestinian terror groups."

The Syrian army has been on high alert since the second Lebanon war broke out.

"During the war the Syrian army upgraded its readiness in case it is asked for a confrontation with Israel… it is mainly preparations that will allow the Syrian army to respond if attacked by Israel. We identify improvements in the preparedness of the Syrian army to defend but we have not identified readiness to attack Israel," the officer added.

What's the condition of the Syrian army these days? Which lessons did it draw from the latest war in Lebanon?

The officer said: "The Syrian army is preoccupied with reinforcing it fighting capabilities based on the lessons of the Lebanon war, like for example the array of surface-to-surface rockets. These rockets, which Hizbullah fired, were Syrian 220mm and 302mm rockets and for the Syrians they are effective."

The officer said that Syria also believes that antitank missiles proved particularly effective against Israel and would seek to upgrade its ammunitions instead of investing in new technologies for its armored corps and its air force.

Nasrallah still in hiding 

And what's happening on the other side of the border, in Lebanon? What is Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah up to these days? "Nasrallah remains in hiding … Hizbullah canceled its annual 'Jerusalem Day' celebration over the weekend and his last public appearance was during the victory rally," the officer said.

"I believe he is hiding because he fears we would harm him but I believe he will soon find opportunities to appear in public. He needs to make minimum public appearances. In any case, we believe that his ability to function as the group's leader was not harmed."

About Hizbullah the officer said the group "is working on the ground to rehabilitate its outposts in southern Lebanon, including the area south of the Litani, but they won't be able to rehabilitate the frontal line of outposts along the border which was damaged during the war."

The officer said Hizbullah would find it difficult to operate south of the Litani River where 8,000 United Nations peacekeeping soldiers and 6,000 Lebanese soldiers have been deployed since the war ended two months ago, forcing the group to "keep a low profile."

"The tendency in southern Lebanon one of 'living with friends' – part of an understanding between the Lebanese Army and Hizbullah, which represent a political agreement between Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Nasrallah that the group won't be disarmed. This has created a situation on the ground where no one is preventing Hizbullah from rehabilitating its capabilities and outposts."

Siniora in danger 

And where is Hizbullah heading for? Are they planning another confrontation with Israel? "Not necessarily but Hizbullah has no intentions of giving up its mission as an organization capable of fighting Israel. Beyond being a Jihad group it is also an Iranian arm for fighting Israel and therefore it understands that it needs to maintain itself as a body that could be asked to do so in the future."

"On the political front Hizbullah is seeking to weaken Siniora and maybe to bring down his government," the officer said.

What are the chances of Siniora or his Minister of the Interior being assassinated? According to the same officer, a plan to assassinate Siniora would be considered if his attempts to change his policies fail, however no one would be surprised if an assassination attempt is carried out against him.

Hamas preparing for war

What is the happening in the Palestinian Authority? "At the moment attempts by Fatah and Hamas to reach an agreement failed and tension between the two is high. In addition, Hamas is making no concessions and is seeking to increase its control of the system, especially in the Gaza Strip through its 'Executing Force' – its security arm."

Fatah, the officer said, is trying to prevent Hamas from extending its control of the Palestinian Authority from Gaza to the West Bank.

"Over the coming weeks we will see dead and injured everyday in confrontations between the Palestinians. We don't know if the incidents would drift to a serious confrontation, since the Palestinians, and especially Hamas, want to avoid civil war … The tendency is certainly one of increased tension."

And what is Hamas doing on the Israeli front? "Hamas is smuggling quantities of advanced anti-tank missiles and is preoccupied with building a force in the Strip. Since it doesn't intend on changing its political path, it is planning for a possible confrontation and therefore it is also preparing for a fight with Israel."

"For the time being there is no serious tendency in Hamas to recognize Israel and to accept demands by the international community, and there is no tendency demands by Abou Mazen (Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas) to set up a technocratic government," he said.

The officer added that should Abbas attempt to disband the Hamas-led government, the Islamic group would interpret the move as a coup, which would make things more complicated.