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Saddam hears verdict
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Shiites celebrate
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Sunnis rage
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Ron Ben-Yishai

Iraq on edge

In wake of Saddam verdict, small spark could signal start of all-out war

The verdict in Saddam Hussein's first trial will not bring about fundamental changes in the Iraq situation. Even the expected emotional turmoil involving Shiites, who view the verdict as a sweet revenge on the man who massacred and murdered them, and Sunnis, who view the verdict as further testament to their humiliation and marginalization, cannot considerably worsen the situation in the country, which in any case is facing chaos and a terror war that claims dozens of lives daily.

 

Besides, everyone in Iraq knows that the verdict will not be carried out immediately, and not even in the near future. Saddam and his partners to power will appeal the verdict, and should the court reject this petition, the hanging will have to wait until the verdict in Saddam's second trial. This trial is behind held at this time with the Butcher of Baghdad facing justice over his massacre of the Kurds.

 

Despite this, in recent days the American occupation authorities and the Iraqi government adopted unprecedented security measures and in fact imposed a curfew on large parts of the country. The main reason for this is the fear of a genuine civil war, which threatens to break out at any moment. Up until now, the Iraqi and American authorities managed, with great effort, to prevent an all-out clash between the militias and armed groups of the three ethnicities, the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds.

 

Radicals eye American voters

Yet one small spark is enough – for example, an armed Sunni attack on a Shiite celebration over Saddam's verdict – in order for the situation to completely get out of control and boil over to a war involving all sides and massive bloodshed that cannot be stopped. Therefore, authorities are focusing their efforts on separating the ethnicities on the assumption that within a few days the danger of explosion as a result of this emotional turmoil will pass.

 

Another reason for the emergency state declared in Iraq that has no direct connection to Saddam's verdict is the elections to be held in two days for the American Congress and Senate.

 

The Sunni terror groups, just as the radical Shiite militias, have the utmost interest to do everything so that President Bush and his Republican party suffer a resounding defeat in the elections – not only in order to get revenge on Bush, but also and mostly in order to boost the chances of electing American democrats who demand that US troops be removed from Iraq.

 

These radical elements know that large-scale violent clashes in Iraq in the coming days could affect the American voter in the direction they desire. The American military authorities in Iraq also know this, as does the Iraqi government, which fears a hasty American military departure. Therefore, they are doing everything in their power so that the level of violence does not rise significantly in Iraq – at least until after the elections.

 

If the Iraqi security forces and US Army succeed in their mission of preventing a wide-scale wave of violence, this will constitute a severe blow to armed groups in Iraq and serve as proof that the situation in the country can be stabilized.

 


פרסום ראשון: 11.05.06, 23:35
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