Diskin: PA unity will win legitimacy
Shin Bet chief addresses situation in Palestinian Authority on eve of possible unity government: 'Abu-Mazen (Abbas) without Fatah supporting him – it's hollow, an inflated balloon with no substance.' In any case there will be no recognition of Israel
Where is the Palestinian Authority headed? That was the question on the agenda for Shin Bet Chief Yuval Diskin as he briefed the cabinet on Sunday. All he had to offer were estimates, maybe a few speculations.
"There's no prophetic ability here, this is not intelligence," he said. One thing is clear however: A union of Hamas and Fatah, which Israel estimates is closer than ever, will create a new political reality.
The new government headed by Islamic University president Muhammad Shabir – who Diskin says is not involved with Hamas' political or military activities – will receive a lot more international legitimacy.
There are still bumps in the road to a unity government however, primarily which group will receive how many senior positions? Both groups are especially concerned about who will control the security forces, i.e. the Ministry of the Interior.
Hamas hasn't upheld any of its principles, said Diskin, and suggested that the government "not kid itself when it comes to the pragmatism of the matter, they (Hamas) expect everyone to fall in line with them, that they'll be able to stick to their principles, despite the fact that the political platform – which is still being negotiated – will apparently meet the demands of the Quartet."
So when will all this happen? If we're talking about the release of Gilad Shalit for the Palestinian ministers and prisoners – it could take several weeks or maybe even several months, said Diskin.
In the meantime, Diskin said, Fatah has begun to show sparks of awakening. Abbas was newly elected chairman and there's an election platform, should young members be appointed within the party – the unity process with begin.
"The question was and remains," said Diskin, "if Abu-Mazen (Abbas) can bring in the scattered factions – that's the real challenge for him."
The Shin Bet estimates that everything is being done very slowly and the situation today is still that of no true power challenging Hamas.
"Abu-Mazen without the Fatah behind him – it's hollow, an inflated balloon without substance," he says.
Smuggling to continue
The Palestinian Authority can afford to survive on its own for at least another six months, said Diskin: "They're not in a humanitarian crisis."
However, the situation in Gaza is not an optimistic one – smuggling activity is going at full force, and without serious treatment from the Egyptian side the cross-border smuggle via Bedouin groups (which are used as couriers) will continue.
Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz also spoke at the meeting and briefed the ministers: "The Egyptians can do much, much, much more. They found a few tones of explosives and make arrests here and there, but they can do much more."
Lt. Gen. Halutz also addressed the Iranian issue: "Despite all the warnings issued against them, they identify the weakness of the international community. This is evident in Ahmadinejad's statement about crossing the technological threshold within the first quarter of 2007."
