The Barak option

Reverting to street language, he says "what will I gain from the latest diplomatic overture to Syria or from the decision pertaining to the primary elections in the Labor party? Where am I in all this?" he often asks out loud, generally to himself. "How would a handshake with Syrian President Bashar Assad or with Labor's Eitan Cabel advance me to my aspired position?"

And there is only one place every politician struggles, dreams and aspires for: The premiership, on 3 Kaplan Street, Jerusalem. All the rest, in the eyes of a politician, is simply "second best."

Let's for a moment assume that former Prime Minister Ehud Barak is only thinking of his personal advancement and status in Israeli politics - after reaching the premiership like a meteor and burning like a meteor upon his descent to earth.

If Ehud Barak thinks hard about this (and there is no dispute as to his capability to think,) then he shouldn't join the current government in any way. If he ever takes up the premiership again, it will only be from the "outside" and after a prolonged period of basic training.

Yitzhak Rabin, for example, waited on the "outside" for eight years until he became defense minister and he waited 15 years until he again became the prime minister.

And why should Ehud Barak wait on the outside?

Ehud Olmert's incumbent cabinet has "run its course" in the minds of the electorate, even if it finds 100 Knesset members in its favor. In politics there is a moment which is often difficult to recognize, a point from which support and trust wanes.

This is what has transpired in the last few years concerning Shimon Peres, Bibi Netanyahu and Ehud Barak. Even Arik Sharon experienced such moments (Gilad and Omri and the Greek Island Affair). From such a point onwards, even positive opinion polls tend to be false.

Barak will not wait

In such a situation, and this is the current situation, only someone "from the outside", a redeemer and a savior of sorts, can revive a dead corpse and return it to its former glory. Right or not, Ehud Barak is currently perceived publicly as such a person. It is no wonder, therefore, that at this point in time Olmert - a political animal with keen senses - wants him by his side as his defense minister.

Barak, who was "thrown" off his seat as prime minister, could serve as Olmert's lifebelt. Ami Ayalon, for example, with all his skills, is perceived publicly as someone from the "inside," as part of the incumbent regime.

In times of distress, particularly when related to security matters, the public attributes more importance to a defense minister, and Ehud Barak is currently perceived as such a candidate. The next elections will be held in the shadow of defense issues, and whether true or not, Barak is depicted as having an all-encompassing worldview and as one who can adequately deal with the security issues at hand.

If Barak joins the race now, before the date for the next elections has been set, he will be in the same boat as Amir Peretz, Binyamin (Fouad) Ben-Eliezer and Ami Ayalon - just another political dealer at a difficult time when the public has lost its faith in its leadership.

If he waits, he'll be summoned as a savior and reinstated straight to the top, to the position he lost six years ago.

My guess is that Barak will not wait. Therefore, his journey to the premiership is very far off, if he even reaches it at all.