Clash of Muslim civilizations

There are currently several volatile fronts in the Mideast but only one war. In Gaza, Beirut, and Baghdad and increasingly in Iran as well, a great war is now being waged over the soul and image of the Muslim Mideast.

Pitted against each other in this war are radical Islam against the moderates; jihadists against human rights activists; terrorists against civilians, and for the first time in this type of conflict in the Arab world, even moderates are taking up arms and fighting back the attackers.

The outcome of this conflict will determine the future and character of the Arab-Muslim civilization in the Middle East. If Hamas defeats Fatah in Gaza, if Hizbullah overpowers the incumbent multi-ethnic coalition in Lebanon, if the suicide bombers topple the elected Iraqi government in Baghdad, and if Ahmadinejad's cronies reverse the local election results and prevent the reestablishment of sane statesmen in Teheran – the region will sink into a black sea of backwardness, and a red sea of a holy war.

An alternative option

But a reverse outcome is also possible; new elections in the Palestinian Authority with a clear majority for the parties opposing Hamas; Hizbullah's removal from the center of Lebanon's arena to its militant sidelines; ousting of the Iranian president and expropriation of his authorities in favor of the moderate conservatives; and eradication of the murderous terror gangs throughout Iraq.

Neither of these options is dictated from above. Experience shows that the spreading of Islamic Jihad can be halted, albeit the heavy cost of a civil war. Yet even prevention of an open conflict is costly. Fanatics are incapable of ruling anyone in any country – not in Afghanistan, Sudan, Iran or Palestine – and therefore in order to conceal their inability to rule, they drag their people into bizarre wars and adventures that inevitably culminate in destruction, deterioration and bloodshed.

From this standpoint, Islamic fanaticism is adopting the modes of rule prevalent in 20th century radical Western ideology. Similar to these ideologies, fanatic Islam requires the constant fire of an armed revolution, a holy war of some type or another and ambitions for physical and ideological dissemination.

Only this way, in a climate rife with incitement and sacrifice, can it recruit the masses and silence the dissidents. Regime failures by fanatic movements will be forgiven - as hoped by the leadership against the backdrop of honing swords, showcase trials and witch hunts. According to them, silence is tantamount to filth. When civilians attempt to stabilize their country and improve their economic plight, fanaticism tends to collapse.

Stability is therefore radical Islam's primary enemy, just as it was the enemy of fascism. Therefore, there is no practical solution for peaceful coexistence between the radicals and the moderates.

The dream of a "national unity government" in which terrorists will rule alongside civilians and fanatics alongside experts is not a viable option. Even if such a government is established in Ramallah or Beirut, it is destined to quickly collapse and leave scorched earth behind.

You can't ride a predator unless you are wiling to be its next prey.

Israel is currently positioned on the outside of this intra-Arab, intra-Muslim clash of civilizations, but only ostensibly: Coming to terms with Israel's right to exist is one of the key issues in this conflict, although not the main bone of contention. At the heart of the conflict lies the question of the future: What kind of a future can the hundreds of millions of children in the Muslim east expect – one of jihad or growth? Light or darkness?

This dilemma can only be resolved by the Arab world, and there will be no shortcuts.