Will Olmert go home?

One cannot be jealous of Ehud Olmert. Slowly he is being crushed under an aggressive steamroller, and there's nothing or nobody on the horizon that will stop him from being run over.

The people don't want him in power. A poll published here this week gave him only three percent support as prime minister. The entire opposition, and it appears that a significant part of the government establishment as well, are aiming to topple him.

The Palestinians are not lending a hand in order to rescue him through some kind of brilliant diplomatic move. World leaders, from Bush through Blair and Merkel to Mubarak and Abdullah, aren't rushing to Jerusalem in order to save their buddy Ehud with some vision that will rehabilitate him. Even the not-so-bad economic situation isn't convincing the public that the man deserves to stay at his post.

From his own perspective, this is what it looks like: He sells his luxury home and purchases a house he hasn't yet received in Jerusalem – only to be investigated by the state comptroller; he appoints Peretz as defense minister for fear that if he gives him the Treasury investors will run away – only to be blamed for neglecting national security; he fails to secure the release of abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, whose parents along with tens of thousands of Israelis are slamming him; he goes to war after Hizbullah infiltrates sovereign Israeli territory and abducts two soldiers – only to have the Winograd Commission threaten his future; he encourages the sale of a bank for NIS 2.5 billion (roughly USD 600 million) – only to have the attorney general look into the possibility of launching a criminal investigation into the affair.

Blows are getting harder

His close associates are being hit one after the other: the police removes his office manager and confidante over the tax authority scandal, which among other things goes back to the period where he served as finance minister; his friend is convicted of an indecent act against a young female soldier at his office on the day Israel decided to go to war; his finance minister and close associate is about to face an interrogation over an affair involving an HMO; his chairman of the Knesset Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee is about to face trial over a political appointments affair.

On the outside, he attempts to convey calm and a sense of control. However, even his longtime experience in dealing with campaigns against him (including his Likud invoices trial, where he was acquitted despite being criticized by the court, and affairs related to his 10-year term as Jerusalem's mayor) do not provide him with the tools to face the heavy personal pressure, which is tightening around him. Not a day goes by where he isn't in the sights of some opponent or another, and they fire at him with no mercy. Under such circumstances, he will not be able to continue managing Israel's complex affairs for long.

The blows are getting harder, and currently he's facing a particularly heavy hammer – that of retired Judge Eliyahu Winograd. For Olmert, the Commission is a first-rate personal and political survival test. "The responsibility for the Lebanon War is on the prime minister's shoulders," he says. The public will very much appreciate this accountability, but a day will come where it demands that the check Olmert placed on Winograd's desk be cashed.

If the Commission rules that Israel failed in Lebanon, he will have to pay the price. He will be asked to quit and go home, to the Jerusalem house he still hasn't received.