Iran sets sights on space

The Iranians are flexing their muscles. They are not just alluding to nuclear capability, which in fact they don't have - they are also trying to convince the world that they are deep into space. The launching of the Iranian satellite Sunday was an act of defiance: We too are playing in the big leagues, namely in the space club. The Shiite empire has struck again.

This act conveys a message of deterrence for Israel, the US and the entire Western world, alongside a propaganda message aimed internally and at the Arab states. This Iranian conduct, "don't threaten us, restrain us or we'll go wild," is reminiscent of North Korea's conduct.

But just as the Iranian nuclear capability is yet to mature, it is doubtful whether Iran has indeed made the breakthrough required to position it among the nations controlling space technology. The key question is whether Iran brought the satellite it launched Sunday to a state where it can go into orbit: This critical, very accurate point enables a satellite to go into orbit without crashing down to earth like a silly ballistic missile. If they didn't succeed, then in fact nothing has happened, and all the commotion around the launch is nothing but an act of political propaganda.

The answer to this key question will quickly become apparent, within hours. The chances that Iran did indeed try to position a satellite in space and perhaps even succeeded is very low, because as far as we know it did not employ a three-phase launcher with space navigation capabilities.

Iran has the capability to manufacture engines that propel launchers – which are in fact ballistic missiles – with ranges of hundreds and thousands of kilometers. But this Iranian capability has long been known. Iran's desire to control space technology is clear, as outer space is currently inundated with equipment that constitutes part of modern day warfare and includes satellite navigation systems, communications systems, and intelligence and surveillance systems. If in the past bombs were guided by an airborne computer – today navigating bombs to their targets is conducted from space. The Iranians want to be there, or at least to make it clear to whoever may wish to attack it, that they are already there – in space.

Name of the game is deterrence

The Iranians are well aware that any attack against it from the air can only be conducted by satellite capability with real-time intelligence information that would accurately guide bombs and aircraft to their targets. So meanwhile, they are trying to scare us – and they are succeeding.

Even if Iran at some point in time manages to overcome the technological barrier and put a satellite into orbit, it will still have to face the technological challenge of developing a satellite of a certain size and weight. It would have to be a satellite with the capability of carrying all navigation, surveillance, intelligence and communications systems.

About two months ago the Chinese intercepted a spacecraft. This act angered the Americans yet worried them even more. And this is exactly what the Chinese had in mind. The Chinese demonstrated their capability to intercept a spacecraft to counterbalance the American anti-ballistic missiles and their deployment, which hinders the Chinese power of deterrence to some extent. China sought to convey a message to the Americans: You are developing anti-ballistic missiles and Israel has the Arrow. If you intercept our missiles we'll go for your satellites.

Iran did the same thing Sunday: If you attack us, we'll respond by the same token. We too are in space. The name of the game is deterrence. The court is outer space, because it has already become part of modern warfare.