Summer war unlikely

The most important defense-related question in the immediate term is the possibility of renewed fighting in the north this summer. In my opinion the chance of such an eventuality is slim.

True, Israel's deterrent image suffered a blow during the Second Lebanon War last summer. Our deterrence power has dropped, but not to the level required for Syria to embark on war. As time goes by Syria is increasingly realizing that its initial impression of a weakened IDF following the war against Hizbullah was mistaken.

Firstly, it has become apparent to us (and to Syria) that the unsatisfactory outcome of the war stemmed from the defense leadership's lack of experience and the flawed management of the top military brass, and not due to some other reason that cannot be rectified relatively easily.

The army has already come a long way in its effort to rectify the flaws – an effort undertaken by the new chief of staff - and the political elite is in the midst the process of drawing conclusions.

Secondly, in the time that has elapsed, Syria has realized that despite the IDF's failure to curb the threat of short range Katyusha rockets, which are not carried on mobile launchers, it was highly successful in destroying all medium and long range rocket launchers. And these happen to be the rockets in Syrian hands.

And thirdly, and Syria has always been aware of this, in a war against Syria, Israel would not play with its hands tied behind its back. The Syrian army is not an independent entity operating in a country detached from the Syrian government's decisions, and this time Israel would not avoid striking at Syria's national infrastructure and sovereignty. Even overtaking Damascus and toppling the Syrian regime would not be automatically disqualified.

Hizbullah suffered major blow

Another possibility for war in the summer is related to the renewal of fire by Hizbullah. This probability is also very low. Israel is busy investigating the causes that led to the unsatisfactory outcome of the last war, and perhaps this is why we tend to forget that it also had some remarkable achievements. Firstly, Hizbullah suffered a fatal blow and lost hundreds of its fighters; apparently over 15 percent of its fighting forces.

The process of replenishing equipment can be carried out quickly, but rehabilitating the fighting forces will take several years. Secondly, the organization cannot operate freely in the area south of the Litani River as was the case prior to the missile war last summer. Thirdly, Nasrallah is finding it difficult to justify the massive destruction of the war to the Lebanese people, and it is doubtful whether he would be eager to enter another such adventure in the next few years.

Incidentally, this is the reason that the nine months that have elapsed since the last war have been the quietest in the history of our northern border in the last 30 years.

All the above doesn't contradict the necessity to prepare for the next war now. The IDF's working assumption is that another war on the northern border may erupt as early as this summer, and such an assumption is positive. Prediction of wars is not an exact science, and the army must be prepared for every eventuality. Moreover, the chances of a war breaking out depend on the IDF's preparedness.

As long as the Syrians or their Shiite cohorts in the axis of evil in the north think that the army is less prepared, the chances of another round of war will become greater, and vise versa. The additional defense budget required for this is negligible vis-à-vis the economic toll of a war with Syria.

And finally, we must not forget the Iranian factor. Iran is likely, in the event of escalation of conflict with the free world and amid their nuclear ambitions, to "sacrifice" their emissaries in Lebanon by instructing them to open fire even if such an act opposes Hizbullah's narrow interests.

The IDF must assume, therefore, that a war this summer is an option and to seriously prepare for it, as indeed is the case today.

Those seeking peace should prepare for war, said the Romans, and how right they were.

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel heads the program for Defense Studies at Tel Aviv University