Alon Liel
Photo: La'am
Don't believe Syrian opposition
Assad ready to cut off Teheran; exiles who say otherwise deceiving us
Israelis may not remember the name Ahmed Chalabi, but in Washington it will be remembered for many years to come.
Chalabi is an Iraqi exile who presented himself to the Americans as the leader of the opposition to Saddam Hussein. The neo-conservatives around President Bush who wanted to topple Saddam warmly embraced Chalabi. They accepted his political interpretations of what was going on in Iraq without question, helped feed the American defense establishment with false information, and marketed to the American public his lies regarding the desires of the Iraqi people, who apparently only waited for the Americans to occupy it.
The American media, meanwhile, presented Chalabi to the masses as the person who would be leading Iraq the day after liberation.
When that day really arrived and the Americans became entangled in the Iraqi swamp, it turned out that Chalabi lacked any influence in Iraq, to the point of his party not being able to win even one seat in parliament in Baghdad.
All those politicians here excited by last week's Knesset visit of the "Syrian opposition leader" who urged Israel not to engage in talks with Assad should be reminded of the American lesson.
Washington continues to err when it comes to Mideastern forecasts. President Bush's great desire to get revenge on Bashar Assad over the American failure in Iraq and Assad's ongoing involvement in assisting terror elements prevents him from identifying the opportunity that has been created.
Today, Syria is ready to disengage from Iran – the alliance is not natural for Damascus and a nuclear and fundamentalist Iran scares the Syrians. Grasping the new situation and changing the American approach could dramatically affect our regional conflict.
The supreme Israeli interest, which certainly does not contradict the American one, is to bring about the complete cutting off of military ties between Syria, Iran and Hizbullah and the expulsion of Hamas' Khaled Mashaal from Damascus. In exchange, the doors must be opened for Syria to move into the West and an aid program must be created for it in a similar fashion to the one that disconnected Egypt from the former Soviet Union.
Decisive blow to terror groups
Shifting Syria to the West would also allow for a Syrian-Israeli peace agreement. It would also facilitate the significant boosting of the moderate camp in the Arab world, headed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Such a scenario would require Israel handing over sovereignty of the Golan Heights to Syria, while demilitarizing the area and turning about half of it into a nature reserve and tourist site for the benefit of both countries. The Syrians would be forbidden from diverting water resources on the Golan Heights and they would be obligated to sign a peace and complete normalization agreement between the two countries.
Such move would change the State of Israel's strategic situation. Iran's ability to maneuver would be greatly minimized, and its international status would be further undermined. The terror groups operating in Lebanon and Syria would be dealt a decisive blow. At this time, the Israeli-Syrian window of peace opportunities is wide open, compared to the slim chance for diplomatic progress with the Palestinians, particularly in light of Hamas' process of strengthening these days.
An agreement of "territory in exchange for a change of policy" could constitute a solution for Syrian, American, and Israeli needs. The Americans should be strategic partners to this move and provide Israel and particularly the Syrians with a solid base to advance with no fear of the damage to be caused to them by terminating old alliances. Assad's demand to get the Americans in the room is just as logical as Olmert's demand to disengage from Iran.
Our leaders, first and foremost, bear the responsibility not to miss out on a historic opportunity to minimize the strategic threats on Israel. The first move must take place in Washington this week. Olmert must point the opportunity to Bush and perhaps, for the first time, make the point loud and clear.
This move is not simple and would certainly face vocal opposition in Washington. Yet leaders are tasked with advancing the good of the country, as they understand it. When the benefit of an agreement is tangible and possible to achieve, the public will follow them.
Dr Liel, the former Foreign Ministry director general, held unofficial talks with Syrian mediaries under the Swiss government's patronage over the past three years
