Israeli reassessment needed

Gaza Strip upheaval requires Israel to answer new questions

Ephraim Halevy|Published: 06.17.07 , 12:42

It's too bad that the prime minister left for the United States last night. It may have been better had he suggested to President Bush that he postpone the trip by a week, during which he would have held intensive discussions with top security, intelligence, diplomatic and government officials in a bid to formulate an in-depth intelligence assessment regarding the situation that has emerged in wake of the sudden and unexpected deterioration in Gaza.

It would also be important for him to engage in a series of quick meetings with regional leaders in order to attempt and reach understandings and proposals for action. In that case, the prime minister could have made the American administration wiser and also formulated a new plan instead of the one that was premised on building Fatah's strength in the Gaza Strip in order for it to confront Hamas and defeat it.

As always, it would be important for the political leadership to draft the questions that operational units and professional experts would have to answer.

Below is a list of the questions that require an answer:

1. In face of the collapse of the well-trained and well-equipped Fatah forces in the Strip, is there still room for believing that Fatah will maintain its power in Judea and Samaria? Is the US able to train Fatah forces in the West Bank and instill military and political strength in them as well as command authority?

2. How should Mahmoud Abbas' leadership ability be evaluated in light of his conduct over the Gaza crisis, and what are his chances of surviving as his people's leader?

3. What's needed on Israel's part in order for Abbas not only to survive but also to establish himself as an authoritative and recognized leader both in his country as well as across the Arab world? Is this price worthwhile? Is it possible to pay it in practice? Is the return guaranteed?

4. Are there any alternatives to the Abbas regime? What are they, and are they worthy of in-depth examination in light of the possibility that Abbas may not be able to pass the West Bank test?

5. Would Hamas be able to maintain its hold on the Strip without any kind of cooperation with Israel (for example opening the border crossings)? If so, how and what would be the price of such a process for Israel? If not, what could come in its place? Is the alternative good or bad for Israel?

6. Israel made sure to show Hamas that abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit was a "strategic asset," in order to convince it not to harm him. Is Israel willing to give up on this "asset" in light of the situation that was created, and if not, how can dialogue with Hamas over this matter be advanced in light of the situations and scenarios that may emerge?

7. After it overcomes its unease over the Gaza events, what will be the Arab world's policy vis-à-vis the new reality? Is there a possibility to engage in dialogue with the Arab world at this time of all times? Is the Arab world's interest similar to or different from the Israeli interest these days?

8. Is Israel willing and able to completely sever itself from the Strip in light of the situation that has been created, including the humanitarian aspect? If so, is Israel willing to free all access routes into the Strip that do not pass through Israel from Israeli control? If not – how will Israel shirk this responsibility? If the answer is yes, how would it safeguard its security if the Iranians and others have free access to the Strip not via Israel?

These are a few of the questions that should be clarified here in the Middle East, before the prime minister finalizes another quick move, similar to the unilateral disengagement, in Washington.