Declaration of war
Israel should issue ultimatum to Lebanon in wake of Sunday's rocket attack
Less than a year after the Second Lebanon War, Israel's sovereignty was again compromised by Katyusha fire from Lebanese territory at civilian communities. On the face of it, there could not be a less convenient time for Israel to be facing such an incident, for the following reasons:
1. Israel is challenged on its southern border by a dangerous historical process whereby a radical Islamic movement that espouses ideology similar to that of global Jihad and serves as a puppet of Israel's most dangerous enemy, Iran, has taken over the Gaza Strip while trampling over the remnants of the Palestinian Authority's seeming democracy. It is clear to all that Israeli military intervention in the Strip is hanging by a thread and any multi-casualty terror attack or a lethal Qassam rocket would require the IDF to act against Iran's emissaries in the Strip.
2. Decision-makers in Israel are still licking their wounds over the failure of the Second Lebanon War, and are very hesitant to make any move that would again push them into the Lebanese swamp.
3. Israel has not yet completed the process of drawing lessons from the latest war, including the personal lessons – the new IDF chief of staff has only recently started to work and form the General Staff around him, while the new defense minister only assumes the post this week.
4. The relationship with Syria is tense and sensitive, and the pendulum swings between embarking on peace talks and winds of wars.
5. Iran, which repeatedly threatens to do everything in its power to exterminate the Zionist entity, has completed the process of outflanking Israel through de facto control of territories bordering on it – Hizbullah on the north and Hamas on the south – and in the next few months it will be finalizing its nuclear capability and possess a bomb with the ability to fire long-range missiles that reach any point in Israel.
And against this terrible background, Katyusha rockets were fired at Kiryat Shmona, apparently by some kind of Palestinian organization that may have some connection to Syria, Iran and Hizbullah.
These missiles placed Israel's decision-makers in a catch-22 situation: On the one hand, Israel must respond in a decisive manner to an attack on a civilian target, constituting a severe violation of its sovereignty, yet on the other hand, any military operation, as targeted as it may be, could constitute the spark that lights the powder keg and causes Hizbullah to again utilize its long-range firing capability, which has been restored since the war.
This is exactly the reason why those who made the decision to launch the rockets – either the organization that carried it out or its masters – decided to fire the Katyusha rockets at this specific civilian target and at this sensitive junction.
Ultimatum needed
What should Israel do then? It must immediately declare that the attack on Kiryat Shmona constitutes a declaration of war by Lebanon against Israel. Lebanon is responsible for what goes on in its territory and we cannot accept that it turn a blind eye or display helplessness in this case, for that would recognize the existence of an extra-territorial enclave.
This declaration should be accompanied by a concrete ultimatum that includes a threat and defined timeframe for realizing this threat, which would also be directed at the Lebanese government.
In the ultimatum, Israel must state that it grants Lebanon two weeks to identify the attackers and those who sent them and hand them over to face trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC). Should Lebanon fail to do this, Israel would see itself obligated to fight back in the face of the attack against it and would be free to respond in a military manner or otherwise against Lebanon.
Such an Israeli position, which would be accompanied by a call-up of IDF forces if necessary, as well as preparation for a wide-scale military action or a response in case of escalation in the situation in Lebanon, would create serious international and domestic pressure on Lebanon to act against the attackers, and above all make it clear that Israel is no longer willing to ignore Katyusha rocket fire on its territory.
In any case, the Lebanese government should be viewed as the legitimate and legal address for this belligerent act against Israel.
Dr Ganor is the director of the International Counter-Terrorism Policy Institute at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya
