Zalman Shoval
Blair to the rescue?
Former British PM welcome guest in region, but is unlikely to succeed
It is unclear whether the appointment of outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair as special envoy to the Middle East is just a matter of getting him a new job, or whether the people who appointed him on behalf of the international Quartet truly believe he would be able to change something in the Palestinian swamp. Even his mandate, that his, his letter of credentials, is not completely clear.
As noted in the official statement, his job is to oversee the development of Palestinian infrastructure and government institutions, win over international backing, and develop plans to promote economic development – while cooperating with others to achieve the international Quartet's agreed-upon objectives. But will the emphasis be placed on the first part of this definition, that is, helping the Palestinians put their collapsing house in order – or do Blair and his masters mostly want him to and serve as a diplomatic mediator between Israel and the Palestinians?
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In both cases his chances of succeeding are close to nil. One cannot make bricks without mud, and in a split and crumbling society headed by two "governments" – a terrorist one in Gaza and a virtual one in Ramallah – one cannot create government, economic, and legal institutions out of thin air.
As to the second possibility, that is, working to promote the agreed-upon objectives of the Quartet, which as we may recall include the establishment of a democratic Palestinian state that peacefully co-exists alongside Israel, after what happened in Gaza and what may very well happen in the West Bank despite the international support offered to Abbas and the hundreds of millions of dollars being handed over to him (partly by the Israeli government,) the mere idea of establishing a Palestinian state would have to be revised, to say the least.
Whereas the Gaza Strip's Hamastan has been taken over by a gang whose declared goal, with Iran's backing, is to eliminate the State of Israel and its Jewish residents, there is no sign that Abbas would be able to or wishes to accept the far-reaching compromises with Israel without which any thought of final-status agreements or event "diplomatic horizons" would be crazy.
On the contrary, the mere discussion of the genuinely difficult issues – refugees, borders, settlements, Jerusalem – guarantees a new wave of violence, a third intifada – for the same reasons the second intifada broke out six years ago because of a failure on the part of then Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Barak, to read the map.
Moreover, even if reality in those matters would have been different, the American Administration has no intention to grant Blair powers at the expense of the US' leading role regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and it is indeed difficult to see what diplomatic clout Blair brings with him that would even justify his own hopes.
Comedy skit in Sharm
And meanwhile, almost as a "prelude" to Blair's arrival at our region, the Sharm el-Sheik "summit" went ahead with Egypt's president, Jordan's King, Israel's prime minister, and Abbas.
In dictionaries, the term summit is defined as a meeting involving the highest level of heads of state - Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin in World War II, for example. It is difficult to see much similarity between that and the comedy skit that took place in the Sinai between Olmert, the head of the Palestinian Authority (described by Knesset Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Tzachi Hanegbi as "the mayor or Ramallah"), a Jordanian king with good intentions but lacking genuine ability to influence the situation, and an Egyptian president concerned that the Islamic wave in Gaza may spread towards his country too.
Despite our goodwill, we cannot ignore the fact that the host bears at least some responsibility for the situation that emerged in the Gaza Strip and the arms smuggling there. There is no reason to be surprised then that the Sharm "summit," as expected, was a futile move.
With the exception of the declarations of support for Abbas, including the release of 250 Palestinian detainees and recycled statements of handing over money to him, the summit did not result in anything (and could not have resulted in anything.)
Indeed, Olmert reiterated his willingness to discuss the Saudi initiative that is dangerous to Israel – he did so apparently mostly so Washington hears it (and to some extent, the Labor party). Yet the Saudis themselves apparently were not too impressed and consistently continue to reject the uncontrollable wooing of the Israeli government (including our elected president.)
Tony Blair will soon open an office in Jerusalem. He is a welcome guest, yet some kind of solution with our neighbors, whether it is called "peace" or one kind of agreement or another – will not be secured by him or another temporary guest.
This would only happen if the Palestinians would be able to give rise to new rational leadership, and if in Israel we would see a government that adopts the proper combination of security and diplomatic determination and insistence on vital interests, with the promotion of its own pragmatic and wise initiatives.
