Shlomo Ben Ami
Photo: Hagai Aharon
Bush's private party
Without Saudi participation, US president's peace summit has little significance
The Mideast axis of evil summit attended by Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas held immediately after President Bush called for an international conference to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace, once again demonstrates the extent of which the problems of the area are intertwined.
The US has always known this, but has for years conducted itself according to erroneous priorities. It failed to understand that if there is an Achilles heel in the Mideast problem, it can be found in the Palestinian question and not in the fight against terror, Iraq or in enforcing democracy in Arab states. Only after six years of stubbornness, Bush admitted that "Iraq was not the only key axis in the Middle East."
Bush's initiative is his last effort to salvage America's status in the region, after the United States has found itself on the defensive on all fronts. Ironically, the call for an international conference is also a call to declare war on Hamas, which came to power through democratic elections, and to sign a peace agreement with Fatah that lost in the elections.
Despite this, Bush's initiative does not lack value. It recognizes the failure of the Road Map and the need to skip over the two intermediate phases and go directly to the final-status phase. Bush has even came as close as possible to former President Clinton's peace plan when he announced that "past borders, current realities and agreed changes" will define the solution.
Bush, as well as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, also warned Israel with surprising blatancy that its future does not depend on "continued occupation of the West Bank."
On the other hand, Bush's strategy is consistently lacking on several fundamental points. The international conference's basic rules do not include radical participants – Syria and Hamas – and thus encourage them to continue in their "role" of spoiling the fun. It's an illusion to believe that peace can be achieved without the participation of these forces. As long as Hamas and Syria remain outside of the peace process, they are destined to proceed on the Iranian track.
US initiative unrealistic
Moreover, the moment the US stipulated that recognition of Israel is a prerequisite for participation in the conference it created a barrier that prevents Saudi Arabia's participation. In circumstances whereby the Saudi peace initiative is not part of the agenda and Hamas is not invited to attend the conference, it becomes difficult to expect those who sponsored the Mecca Agreement to support the Bush initiative.
Without the participation of the Saudis, Bush's summit will be nothing more than a private party attended by Israel and the Palestinians.
Bush was right when he called on friendly Arab states to contribute to the peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, but how much pressure is he able to or prepared to exert when he is in need of their support in fighting terror and impeding Iran?
His call on Egypt and Jordan to offer alternate crossings for Palestinians instead of Israel is perhaps a welcome measure, but will in all likelihood be met with opposition, because America's moderate friends view the peace process as a series of concession on Israel's part, and not as a means to enlist them to pull Israel's chestnuts out of the fire - certainly not as long as it refuses to support the Arab peace plan.
The current American initiative sounds reasonable, yet it is basically unrealistic. Its innocent objective - To reexamine progress towards building Palestinian governing institutions, to seek ways to support further reforms, and to support the efforts being made on both sides – is well suited to the Israeli perception; however, the Palestinian militias have shown time and again that they are not prepared to give up the armed struggle before they see the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with east Jerusalem as its capital.
The Bush initiative is a basic strategic pitfall, premised on driving a wedge between Mahmoud Abbas' "moderates" and Hamas' "extremists." However, in order for Abbas to gain the upper hand, more than gestures or "building governing institutions" are required.
Only a comprehensive peace agreement that addresses key aspirations of Palestinian nationalism will give it the legitimacy needed to confront the radicals.
