Ahmadinejad. Not acting alone
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Sarkozy. Taking the lead
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Bush. Has not given up on UN
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Dr Eran Lerman
'Iranian responses indicate they are stressed'
Former senior Military Intelligence official believes Iranian statements that nuclear program has gone beyond the point of no return are indication of exact opposite
As long as Iran
does not possess a sufficient amount of fissionable nuclear material, its nuclear program can be stopped, according to Colonel (res.) Dr Eran Lerman, a senior Military Intelligence official.
Lerman believes that in spite of the growing calls in the West for a military strike against Iran, the diplomatic channel may still work.
"The Iranian leadership's aggressive statements that the Iranian nuclear issue is an established fact indicate that they are still far from this situation," claims Lerman, an executive director at the American Jewish Committee's Middle East/Israel office.
Iranian president:
Associated Press
Iranian president declares in speech to UN General Assembly that his country will leave monitoring of its nuclear activity to IAEA. Ahmadinejad also slams Israel, US for occupation of Palestine and Iraq, violating human rights
According to Lerman, sanctions imposed by the United Nation's Security Council may still bear fruit, in spite of the fact that Russia and China, two permanent council members with veto right, have been delaying a third resolution against Tehran.
"The Russians have a complicated relationship with Iran. To a large extent, they see Iran as a means to mock the Americans and make it clear that Russia is not in their pocket.
"On the other hand, however, they understand that a wide conflict on their southern border, which may expose their helplessness, is not a desired thing.
"It all depends on their decisiveness: If Moscow and Beijing understand that the alternative for sanctions against Iran is a dangerous conflict at a problematic timing, there is definitely a chance for sanctions which could yield results if they are implemented in an efficient manner," Lerman notes.
Although the Security Council decided last week to postpone the discussion on tougher sanctions till the end of November, Lerman does not believe that the Council's announcement is soft or weak.
"The announcement's wording – and the firm demand for an immediate and complete halt to Iran's uranium enrichment activities – is not at all compromising," he claims.
According to Lerman, the fact that the US recently launched sanctions of its own against Tehran does not indicate that it has given up on the UN.
'There are many possibilities'
Lerman expresses his doubts about the New Yorker report from Sunday, which claimed that a Pentagon contingency plan for a possible attack against Iran revealed that the first targets would be the Revolutionary Guard, while an attack of nuclear facilities would take place at a later stage."We must be cautious when reading reports by Seymour Hirsch," Lerman suggests. According to him, the quality of Hirsch's articles is similar to that of his sources, which are not always reliable, judging from past experience.
He admits, however, that the crisis around Iran's nuclear plan is complicated.
"As French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said, if nothing works, we must prepare for a violent conflict. But there are many possibilities, ranging from doing nothing to an all-out war," Lerman states.
The most aggressive declarations made recently against Iran came from France. In addition to the foreign minister's remarks, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in a UN speech that if the world lets Iran obtain nuclear weapons, its stability would be undermined and this could lead to war.
Lerman does not find this particularly surprising. "France had taken the lead in terms of the Iranian nuclear issue. It has lost its friends in the Western world and is now reexamining its status. Its opinions on the Iranian issue derive from its stance in terms of Lebanon, where France is suspicious of the intentions of Syria and Hizbullah."
And what about Iran's threats to strike Israel if it is attacked? Lerman believes that such statements indicate that the Iranians are stressed.
"Iran has the technical ability to attack. What will it do in practice? No one knows. What I can say for certain is that these remarks testify to a high level of stress. We must also remember that there additional state organizations in Iran, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not the only one to make the decision."
