World peace at stake
Bhutto assassination could have far-reaching implications for global security
Members of the Bhutto family, just like members of the American Kennedy family and Indian Gandhi family, have a tendency to die in unusual circumstances. On Thursday it was Benazir Bhutto, who joined her father (who was executed) and her brothers (who were murdered) following an assassination coupled with a suicide bombing.
However, Bhutto’s assassination, unlike the killing of the Kennedy brothers and the Gandhi mother and son, constitutes a much greater threat to the stability of her country and of the entire region. Following the assassination, Bhutto supporters stormed the streets and blamed emissaries on behalf of Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf for the murder.
There is no doubt that Musharraf had something to gain from the demise of Bhutto, who attempted to stablize the coalition against him (along with religious parties and with her former nemesis Nawaz Sharef.) However, until we find out who was responsible for the murder (a difficult task considering the fact that the assassin apparently made sure to blow himself up in order to prevent identification,) we cannot rule out other elements as well.
The first such element is the military, which regardless of Musharraf (who recently stepped down as the army’s commander in chief, at least officially) had reason to fear Bhutto’s intentions to undermine it, if and when she would take power.
The second element is the mighty Pakistani secret service, the ISI. The service indeed supported Bhutto to some extent during her second term in office, but it maintained an independent policy and was in the list of organizations whose power would have been curbed had Bhutto been elected.
The third element is al-Qaeda and groups associated with it, which view the very possibility of a woman heading a Muslim state as intolerable sacrilege. In addition, the liberal agenda and pluralism espoused by Bhutto were not to their liking. In more practical terms, Osama Bin Laden and his close associates need the ISI’s support in order to maintain quiet in the Waziristan region, where they are staying apparently. Their fear that Bhutto may wish to boost military activity against them may have led to the assassination.
On brink of civil war
Whoever the assassin may have been, there is no question this was a colossal security failure. Bhutto was already a target for assassination immediately upon her arrival to Pakistan. It is clear that in the wake of such attempt, security around her should have been at its peak. According to one report, she was the one who asked to open the armored vehicle she was traveling in, so that she can come into close contact with her supporters.
The assassination is akin to pouring more oil on the fire of instability in the country, which has been on the brink of civil war for about six months now. The collapse of the Pakistani regime could have far-reaching implications, and not only for Pakistanis. The great fear is that such collapse could help radical religious movements ascend to power.
Pakistan is known as a country that exported dangerous nuclear know-how to anyone who wanted it. If Iran is indeed closer to a bomb today than ever before, this should be credited to the efforts of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of the Pakistani bomb. Dr. Khan could not have acted without authorities knowing about it.
The toppling of the Pakistani regime, or a new division of power, may constitute a direct threat to regional and world peace. The threat is not only one of nuclear assistance to radical elements, but rather, the loss of one of the most important elements standing by the West in its war against global Jihad.
