Roni Sofer
Photo: Dafna Mekel
Waiting for Mubarak
Now that winter is over, cabinet uses Egypt as latest excuse to avoid major Gaza incursion
Residents of Ashkelon, Sderot, and Gaza-region communities had another tough week. In the face of ongoing rocket barrages, some pinned their hopes on the national security cabinet’s meeting. Some expected the Israeli government to finally decide that it’s facing war, and fight back – a major operation that would push back terrorists away from residents of south Israel. However, these hopeful people apparently failed to grasp Prime Minister Olmert’s
way of thinking.
Olmert faces multiple pressures. On the one hand, the south cries out over the grave blows to Israeli sovereignty, through ongoing Qassam and Grad rocket attacks. On the other hand, as a veteran of Lebanon and Winograd, he does not with to rush into another war. Meanwhile, the international community headed by the United States, United Nations, and European Union do not wish to see the remaining hope of the Annapolis process crushed under Israeli tanks and Air Force bombs aimed at dismantling Hamas’ terror regime in the Gaza Strip.
Wednesday’s cabinet decision is the result of a compromise with all the factors above. Even though there is not even one cabinet member who believes the current dead-end should continue, all of them decided that the IDF will not be embarking on a large-scale ground operation in Gaza.
The previous excuse for avoiding a major military campaign was the winter weather. Yet now that winter is over, officials in Jerusalem are clinging to a new excuse: Egypt will be the restraining element. Mubarak will put an end to Hamas’ strengthening process, and the south will be salvaged.
However, just to ensure that opposition leader Netanyahu will not claim that the government continues to fail in protecting the lives of southern residents, the prime minister made this clear: “Operations against terror will continue in the places, times, and scope we decide on.” Yet even though the cabinet called on the IDF to completely curb the rocket fire – the questions of how, when, and where have remained unanswered for the time being.
A holy war
The good news stemming from the cabinet’s decision is that Israel will continue to walk proudly among nations of the world. The decision enables Olmert to display the image of a moderate, peace-seeking statesman, an honorable member in the club of moderate states facing the axis of evil.
The decision calms international public opinion that is now expressing its displeasure in the wake of the latest amnesty report, which claimed that the humanitarian situation in Gaza is the worst in 40 years. The decision also guarantees that no future Winograd commission will charge that the Olmert government rushed into a war it did not prepare for.
But there is also bad news: First, the cabinet decision will not end the rocket attacks in the south. It will not resolve the civilian suffering in the Gaza region, it won’t mitigate the horror faced by Sderot residents, and it won’t calm the unstable mental state of Ashkelon residents. Olmert, Livni, and Barak will indeed continue to talk about Israel’s right to defend its citizens in the south, yet the IDF’s hands will remain tied. Hamas will control the height of the flames and fire rockets whenever it wishes to do so.
Shin Bet Director Yuval Diskin told the government this week that Hamas wishes to take over Judea and Samaria as well en route to completely eliminating the moderate elements in the Palestinian Authority. Hamas’ decision to fire Grad rockets at Ashkelon is part of this policy.
Defense officials keep on saying that Hamas is uninterested in peace with Israel, and not even a long term ceasefire – possibly only a limited truce that would enable it to grow stronger. This fundamentalist Islamic movement, ranging from Khaled Mashaal in Damascus to Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza, views the fight against Israel as Jihad, a holy war.
