Intelligence report: Chances of 3rd intifada slim
(Video) Outbreak of limited violent revolt possible should number of Palestinian casualties increase significantly, intelligence officials tell cabinet in annual briefing, adding that Syria can be persuaded to sever ties with Iran in exchange for Golan Heights
VIDEO - The chances of a third intifada erupting are slim, but the outbreak of a limited violent revolt is possible should the Temple Mount complex be damaged or if the number of Palestinian casualties increases significantly, according to an intelligence briefing given to members of cabinet on Sunday.
Video courtesy of infolive.tv
The annual intelligence review, presented by officials from the Shin Bet internal security service, Miltary Intelligence and the Mossad, said 25 Arab-Israelis had been involved in terror-related activities in 2007, adding that they had all operated under instructions from terror groups based in the West Bank.
The past year has also seen a general rise in protests by the Arab sector against the government, the officials said.
According to the Israeli intelligence bodies, Syria and Iran estimate that a future military conflict with Israel will be decided by ground-to-ground missiles due to Israel's superiority on land and in the air, but added that Damascus could be persuaded to sever its ties with the Islamic republic in exchange for Israel's withdrawal from the Golan Heights and US support.
5 hostile fronts
However, the intelligence officials estimated that the likelihood that Syria would indeed sever its ties with the "radical axis" in 2008 is small.
"There are currently five hostile fronts: Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iran and the Islamist Jihad," one of the officials said, "the main strategic threat to Israel emanates from Iran for two reasons – the advancement of its nuclear program and the fact that it is establishing its leadership role in the radical axis."
Iran, the cabinet ministers were told, is continuing to enrich uranium in defiance of the international community's resolutions, and is also continuing to develop long-range missiles.
The intelligence officials further stated that the military cooperation between Iran, Hizbullah and the various Palestinian terror groups was growing stronger. Syria, for its part is arming itself at an accelerated pace and is currently developing long range missiles, they said.
According to the intelligence agencies, the arms race is aimed at creating a threat to Israel's home front should a military conflict break out, adding that the regimes in the region's more moderate countries, such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, are currently not in danger of being overthrown despite the power struggle with the "radical axis."
As for al-Qaeda, the ministers were told that the global jihadist group and its offshoots are continuing to operate all over the world, including Europe and North Africa. This activity, the intelligence official said, is also seeping into Gaza.
