Ran Edelist
Photo: Gabby Menashe
A lull instead of revenge
Balance of terror that would lead to ceasefire is the real solution to Qassams
There is a solution to the “Qassam problem,” which is merely a codename for the problem of Palestinian terrorism. The solution is right under our noses and it is being implemented these days. The defense establishment, government, and Hamas are all passive, although conscious, parties to it.
Thus far, Israel prevented the emergence of such balance of terror when it thwarted, or at least attempted to eliminate, any kind of emerging threat (rearmament, training sessions, etc.) arguing that any current threat can be realized in the future. This policy led to escalation, such as the firing on Ashkelon, which led to the last major operation in Gaza, which led to the terror attack at the Mercaz Harav yeshiva, which could have prompted an Israeli response, and so on and so forth.
We are talking about a balance of terror between us and Hamas in the same way it is being managed vis-à-vis Hizbullah. This balance of terror is formed on the basis of the understanding by the leaderships of both sides that ongoing escalation means personal, factional, strategic, and national failure.
Qassams Raining Down
Eden Lieberman
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Coping with this bleeding vicious cycle is based on the fact that alongside the Hamas threat, we see the emergence of a sort of mini-state in Gaza – bases, buildings, and people – that is making the entire Hamas system more vulnerable and readily accessible to the IDF.
On the other hand, the growing threat on Ashkelon and other Israeli targets is supposed to hinder Israel’s ability to respond. It worked and is still working in the north vis-à-vis Hizbullah (with the exception of an exaggerated overreaction by Israel in the Second Lebanon War) and it is supposed to work in the south as well.
Indirect dialogue with Hamas
Both sides repeatedly say that the moment the Qassam fire or surgical strikes will end, quiet will prevail. The fact is that the Israeli government has been engaged, in the shadow of the balance of terror, in indirect dialogue with Hamas via Egypt. This dialogue is meant to lead to a deal that includes abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, Palestinian prisoners, the issue of border crossings, etc., thus leading to a lull.
In order to advance the lull into a situation whereby both sides would find it difficult to renew hostilities, the State of Israel is required to slow down its operations in the territories to the point of “proven ticking bomb” (at this time the definition is much wider, and the Shin Bet needs to minimize it.) Later, if we want the temporary lull to turn into a lever for boosting Mahmoud Abbas, the State of Israel is supposed to deliver on its often-violated obligation to fulfill the clauses of the Road Map and diplomatic process.
It appears to me that in light of the true balance of power between us and Hamas (we are Goliath, for those who failed to notice) we can give up on the need to display the “last blow” in every round of fighting as part of the ultimate proof to the people of Israel that we both avenged and regained the power of deterrence.
Instead of revenge as policy, we should accept the balance of terror as an initial component in achieving a lull, which would lead to greater calm until we see stabilization ahead of an agreement – this would be the prelude to the genuine struggle, which would take place amongst us no less than against the Palestinians.
