Israeli Central Bureau of Panic
Since 1948, Central Bureau of Statistics has been in the business of issuing alarming projections regarding Israel's evolving demographic makeup. More often than not, they've been dead wrong
In the year 1900, British experts predicted that the growing number of horse-drawn carriages in London would bury the city in manure by 1950. They failed to understand the social and economic trends of the time and could not image the immense leaps of progress in technology and transportation, mistakenly believing human evolution to be linear.
The fate of that now laughable projection will be shared by a recent study conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics which predicts that by 2030 the Arab population in Israel will reach 25% of the general populace.
It would be prudent, however, to recall that since 1948 the CBS's numerous statistical projections have often shattered at the feet of the cliffs of reality. This due to erroneous assumptions factored into demographic calculations pertaining to the country's Jewish and Arab populations.
1948: Bureau tells Ben-Gurion to wait
We will remember that in 1948 the Bureau's founder and spiritual leader, Professor Roberto Bacchi, tried to persuade David Ben-Gurion to postpone the establishment of the State of Israel. According to Bacchi's projections at the time, the 600,000 Jewish citizens living within the borders allocated by the United Nations partition plan would become a minority by 1967.
In 1967 and 1973 the Bureau predicted that Jews would become a minority in the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean by 1987 and 1990, respectively.
But the percentage of Arab residents has remained stable, even with a period of record fertility figures in the West Bank.
In 1968 the CBS predicted the high Arab fertility rate would continue into 1985, but by that time the average number of children per woman had dropped from nine to 4.7.
In 2000 the Bureau published its projections towards 2025 but based them on the assumption that Jewish and Arab fertility rates would both experience moderate drops. But since the year 2000 Jewish fertility is on the rise (2.8) while the fall in Arab rates (3.5) came no less than 20 years earlier than predicted.
The annual number of Jewish births has risen 40% since 1995 (80,400 then compared to 112,455 in 2007) while the number of Arab births has steadied at 39,000.
Failure to grasp immigration trends
The Bureau also has an illustrious history of incorrectly predicting immigration rates. In 1948 they tried to dampen Ben-Gurion's expectations, saying there would not be a massive immigration wave to a small war-ridden, economically-troubled country.
In the 1980's the Bureau said that even if the gates of the Soviet Union were to open, most Jews would not immigrate to Israel out of cultural, social, economic, technological and security concerns. And yet, a million came.
Even now, in 2008, the Bureau continues to downscale immigration projections, ignoring the potential that still lies in the FSU as well as the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Hungary, South Africa, Latin America and other nations with substantial Jewish populations.
Current data brings hope, not CBS fatalism
In sharp contract to the CBS, the UN Population Division claims that the drop in Muslim and Arab fertility rates is the highest in the world. Over the course of a mere 25 years Iranians have gone from an average of 10 children per woman to 1.8.
In Egypt and Jordan numbers have plummeted to fewer than 2.5 and 3 children per woman, respectively.
The Bureau's fatalism and pessimism is without foundation. The demographic reality is a source of hope and optimism – not their opposites. And yet the CBS's projection for 2008 shows that its experts are determined to learn from history by repeating the same mistakes, not avoiding them.
Yoram Ettinger is a member of the American-Israeli Demographic Research Group
