Shaul Mofaz
Photo: Gil Yohanan
It’s not Mofaz’s fault
Minister Mofaz’s statement regarding Iran strike not real reason for rising oil prices
There’s an old story about a scientist who trained a grasshopper to jump when he told it “jump.” One day, after removing the grasshopper’s legs, and seeing the grasshopper failing to respond to the “jump” command, the scientist wrote: When a grasshopper’s legs are removed, it loses its hearing.
Using baseless thinking, the scientist actually reached the right conclusion. A grasshopper’s hearing organs are indeed found in its legs. On the other hand, the contribution of Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz to skyrocketing oil prices seems dubious. I recalled this story in the wake of the attacks on Mofaz, who seemingly made oil prices jump by 10% because of a newspaper interview.
Indeed, the Yedioth Ahronoth headline on Friday quoted Mofaz as saying that Israel needs to attack Iran (and we could certainly make do without this incisive declaration.) Indeed, the price of oil rose after that by $10.75 a barrel (which, of course, proceeded to shake up economies across the global village.) Yet the simplistic linkage between these two developments seems puzzling – even when we keep in mind that psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002 for the seemingly sensational discovery that not everything is rational when it comes to business and negotiations.
First, the same day that Mofaz’ quote appeared, another Israeli newspaper quoted “security sources” who said that “Israel will be forced to act against Iran on its own.” Therefore, how can we attribute the skyrocketing oil prices to Mofaz alone? And how come that all the reprimands directed at Mofaz two days ago, not only by commentators but also by senior officials who did not hesitate to speak up, only lowered the price of oil slightly?
After all, these reprimands clearly attested to the fact that Israel will not be attacking Iran anytime soon (as was clear to any reasonable person even before that.)
What about weakening dollar?
Secondly, wise people have been telling us for a while now that the rises in oil prices will not end until the price reaches $200 per barrel, and only this will prompt the so-called enlightened world to do something – doesn’t this imply complex processes that exaggerated declarations by Israeli politicians would barely affect?
And if the dollar is weakening and the latest employment figures in the United States are disappointing, and both presidential candidates do no present any reasonable plan for saving on fuel, wouldn’t that be enough to see the unprecedented rise in the prices of oil continue? Was Mofaz’s needless declaration the only thing that prompted the rising prices?
And who, actually, decided that it was all because of Mofaz, aside from analysts that were caught off guard and were surprised by the latest developments, which were oh-so-expected?
This entire mini-storm did not deserve attention in and of itself. It will be soon forgotten like previous storms. Yet for the time being, it attests to the weakness of our approach to the overall energy problem, both here and abroad.
We see prestigious prizes given to prophets of apocalypse, glamorous conventions used to lament the situation, and scathing attacks on outspoken politicians. On the other hand, massive shift to public transportation or meaningful investment in non-perishable energy sources are not at the top of either the local or global agenda. Yet this apparently has something to do with Transportation Minister Mofaz.
