Many members of the political establishment are wondering why Prime Minister Ehud Olmert decided to “go all the way” and lead a move whose end result is known in advance – the toppling of the government and the coalition.
Olmert, a talented and experienced politician, realizes that his decision to fire Labor party ministers should they vote in favor of dissolving the Knesset pushes forward his political demise. He will be leading a minority government, and within a short period of time there will be no escaping a decision on early elections: Either through a bill for dissolving the Knesset or through a no-confidence vote.
So why is the prime minister doing this to himself? Olmert will do everything in order to complete his term in office without facing an indictment. Dissolving the government this week will mean it will have three or four months left in power. During this period, Olmert will lead a transition government with a decent chance to avoid an indictment during this time.
The prime minister will then claim that he decided to go for new elections because of political-ideological reasons: He refused to capitulate in the face of Shas’ demands for higher child allowances; he did not capitulate in the face of Ehud Barak’s ultimatum and fired Labor party ministers because they undermined his government; he was toppled because of the system of government in Israel and not because of cash-
filled envelopes, he will say.
Currently, Olmert faces a more complex scenario than the above-mentioned one, and he fears it more: His ongoing political lameness may humiliate him and drag him into a long period of uncertainty. He fears a precedent whereby Kadima will elect his successor in September while he still serves as prime minister.
Yet more than anything, he is scared that in the months to come, an indictment against him will be formulated.
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