IDF wary Hizbullah may return to antics after prisoners' swap
Defense establishment officials express concerns over intelligence assessments indicating Shiite group gained considerable military strength since Second Lebanon War, may prove to be more formidable
Israeli security establishment officials fear Hizbullah will boost its rearmament efforts and may look to escalate the situation along the northern border following the implementation of the upcoming prisoner exchange deal.
The officials believe, however, that Hizbullah is wary of a harsh Israeli response and will therefore act with caution.
Under the deal, which is expected to take place on Wednesday, Israel will free five Lebanese terrorists and return the remains of some 200 others in exchange for IDF soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, who are believed dead.
Despite assessments that any escalation along the northern border in the coming days is highly unlikely, the IDF Northern Command is closely following Hizbullah's activities. Acceding to defense establishment assessments, Hizbullah is portraying the prisoner exchange deal as a coup on its part, mainly in an attempt to gain popularity points with the Lebanese public.
Hizbullah's standing among the post-Second Lebanon War villages in southern Lebanon has increased. The organization has been able to obtain more rockets and has increased is caches of short and mid-range rockets by 30% and over – going from having several hundred rockets, to having several thousands.
Since the war ended, Iran has tightened its ties with Hizbullah, making its resources available to it, training and armament wise. Hizbullah's recruitment capabilities have never better and it has been rapidly increasing in numbers.
The IDF had been undergoing a lengthy process of analysis since the war ended. Its troops have been training more, its readiness capabilities heightened and it has better intelligence pertaining to the northern front. Should another confrontation erupt, the information the IDF now has could be used to seriously determent Hizbullah.
Hizbullah has yet to retaliate for Imad Mugniyah's assassination. The hit was attributed to Israel by the Arab media. The IDF is preparing for a scenario in which the retaliation would involve either soldiers stationed on the border, or the residents of the adjacent communities.
The IDF is also ready for a variety of scenarios involving the northern border in general, aiming not to hunt down individual Hizbullah rocket launchers, but rather to tackle as many of its headquarters, in hopes of damaging Hizbullah infrastructure.
