Regarding Israel’s southern front, there too the security establishment is conveying messages. The first message has to do with Gilad Shalit, and it was conveyed Monday by IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi; it was not slip of the tongue by the army chief while he spoke with new recruits.
Ashkenazi on Shalit
IDF chief says knows where Shalit is being held / Hanan Greenberg
(Video) Lieutenant-General Gabi Ashkenazi welcomes new enlistees in Military Induction Center, tells troops that Israeli soldiers 'must always remember that if anything happens to them, we will make sure they are returned to their families'
Israel is very concerned about Hamas’ foot-dragging on Shalit. In fact, Hamas refuses to embark on negotiations at this time for three reasons: Firstly, Hamas views Shalit as an “insurance policy” against a large-scale military operation. Secondly, Hamas wants to see Israel opening the Gaza Strip crossings and Egypt releasing detained group members. Finally, there are disagreements between Hamas and the other parties to the abduction.
The latest developments in Gaza heightened the concerns in Israel over the possibility of Shalit being hurt because of rivalries involving Hamas, the Durmush clan, and the Popular Resistance Committees.
The words uttered by the army chief Monday were meant to make it clear to those holding Gilad and those who may hurt him that Israel knows who they are and will “settle the score with them” should Shalit be even slightly hurt.
Regardless of whether Israel knows precisely where Shalit is held or not, it is quite clear that a ground operation to secure his release is out of the question at this time because of current conditions, and because it would risk the soldier’s life.
Yet when the army chief says “we know where he’s being held, and by who,” this is more than a warning message. Ashkenazi also clearly noted that Israel knows Gilad is currently alive and well. That is: Any change in his condition will draw a harsh response against the perpetrators, even if it takes years to get to them.
As noted, Israel prefers to convey messages rather than embarking on a confrontation and violating the stable ceasefires on both fronts, in the north and south. The government is aware that the security threats on both fronts are growing in a way that requires immediate action. However, in line with the “Barak doctrine,” it tries – by conveying diplomatic and media messages – to neutralize or at least delay the expansion of the threats, in the hopes of postponing the confrontation as much as is possible.
Out of the three alternatives – doing nothing, a military operation, or a diplomatic and media offensive – the government currently prefers the third option.
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