Russia’s decision to get involved in a seemingly local conflict apparently stemmed from its desire to prompt Georgia to embark on a military operation. This allowed Russia to portray Georgia as the aggressor and to justify Moscow’s massive intervention
Russia’s conduct is amazingly similar to a scenario we are already well familiar with: The Soviet initiative to create a crisis and war between Israel and the Arab states ahead of the Six-Day War, in order to intervene in favor of the “victims of aggression.”
War
Russia takes S. Ossetian capital, Georgia pulls back / Reuters
Georgian forces retreat from separatist region after three-day battle; government offers ceasefire, talks. US warns Moscow further escalation could have 'significant impact' on relations
The scope of the Russian military intervention was immediately characterized by the West as “disproportional.” That would be true had the operation been directed at Georgia alone. The targets bombed by the Russians as early as Friday included a Georgian Air Force base in the capital, Tbilisi. According to some reports, American experts are regularly deployed at the base. Israeli experts may also be deployed there, and at the very least were there at some point.
Yet this bombing, which was accompanied by political declarations, hinted that the Russians were signaling to the West, and mostly to the United States, that Russia is determined to prevent its own encirclement by NATO member states.
West’s credibility on the line
The events in Georgia are tuning into a serious test for the West’s ability, and first and foremost for the US, to end the war in the Caucuses and ensure that Georgia remains a sovereign state. Should Georgia be abandoned, the West’s and America’s credibility in respect to the willingness to protect their allies would be undermined.
Therefore, the events in Georgia must be of great interest for Israel as well. However, if it turns out that Georgia acted rashly and allowed the crisis to escalate, the Americans may be forced to find a balance that is not necessarily in Georgia’s favor. Does this remind you of anything?
Israel
maintains close security ties with Georgia, but has great interest in the conflict for other reasons as well: Large quantities of oil and gas are transferred from Azerbaijan to the West via Georgia.
Dr. Isabella Ginor and Gideon Remez co-authored Foxbats over Dimona: The Soviets' Nuclear Gamble in the Six-Day War
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