Obama’s team is the key
US president-elect's aides, advisors will likely have most prominent effect on his policies
Part two of analysis by Ron Ben-Yishai
The president’s main job is to provide the leadership and political authority that would make it possible to pass the policy in Congress and implement it. Once Obama builds his team and fills the top spots in his Administration, it would be possible to more or less estimate his future policy.
We must keep in mind that the president’s views, preferences, and personal background do not exclusively dictate his country’s policy; in fact, they are not even the most important factor that shapes this policy.
The experience I accumulated during my two terms as a correspondent in Washington taught me that the people who really determine the president’s views and affect them are his close aides and advisors. Some of them are top Administration officials: The national security advisor, the White House chief of staff, the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, etc. Others are people who do not have a formal position, but the president listens to them.
Part 1
Ron Ben-Yishai
President Obama will be good for Israel as long as he’s able to restore America’s power
For example, should the State Department’s Dennis Ross, who we are well familiar with, be part of the close group of advisors, we can expect the efforts to secure an Israeli-Palestinian agreement and advance negotiations with Syria to become a higher priority for the Administration. If it happens to be someone else, we shall wait and see.
In that respect, we should keep in mind that “bad for the Jews” and “good for the Jews” are relative terms – what is “good for the Jews” in the view of the Israeli Left is deep and intensive involvement, and even major American pressure, that would force Israel and the Palestinians to reach an agreement largely based on the Barak-Clinton model, as well as a peace treaty with Syria; yet in the view of the Israeli Right, such American policy would be a true disaster.
What about special aid?
Another open question is whether President Obama, in light of the economic situation and the huge hole in the Administration’s budget, will honor George W. Bush’s pledge to grant Israel special defense aid ($30 billion in 10 years) on top of the regular annual aid ($2.3 billion.) It is very possible that the defense and treasury secretaries would advise Obama to spread the special aid over a longer period of time. However, should Gates remain secretary of defense, the aid package’s terms and sum will likely not change.
After all, it would be cheaper to give Israel money that would enable it to buy the military equipment needed to address the Iranian threat than to deal with the violent fallout that would be left in the wake of a desperate pre-emptive Israeli strike on Iran. It is also noteworthy that military equipment acquired by the IDF in the United States helps minimize the damages caused to America’s defense industries as result of the recession.
What’s certain is that the Administration’s Middle Easy policy and its priority order would be derived from the overall policy and strategy to be formulated by the president and his aides. Therefore, it would be irresponsible to estimate now, based on Obama’s declarations during the campaign, how he would conduct himself in the initial stages of his presidential term. The notion that things look different once you take power is just as valid in Washington as it is in Jerusalem.
