Hamas wants ‘upgraded lull’
Both Hamas, Israel want Gaza Strip lull to continue, but not at any price
Part 1 of analysis by Ron Ben Yishai
At the end of the week, Hamas had significantly escalated the rocket fire at Israel. This escalation was manifested in various ways: The number of rockets fired, their range (four rockets were long-range,) and also the clear intention to cause casualties and damages. In the past week, the fire was inconsistent and was aimed at open areas, yet by Friday Hamas decided to take it to the next phase, and there is no doubt this was a calculated move.
Does the escalation in Hamas fire mark the end of the Gaza Strip lull? Not necessarily. Both Israel and the Hamas leadership are still highly interested in seeing the lull go on. This is not an estimate – Hamas spokesmen are openly saying this in their media statements. Intelligence assessments also indicate that Hamas wants the lull to continue, at least until December 19th.
On this date, Hamas argues, the ceasefire needs to be applied to the West Bank as well, or otherwise it would expire. Egypt and Israel argue that there is no such condition in the understandings mediated by Cairo that led to the lull, yet Hamas insists. In any case, Hamas wants the truce to continue until December, yet not at any price.
Hamas is interested in a lull as long as it will be managed by the principles which the group, as well as other Gaza groups, agreed to. Should Israel accept these conditions, the lull will continue. If not, Hamas’ military wing along with the Popular Resistance Committees and Islamic Jihad are willing to renew full-blown fighting. At least this is what Hamas spokesmen are saying openly. This is a case of walking a thin line, through the media, yet we cannot discount the possibility that Hamas means every word.
Hamas has presented several conditions for continuing the lull. First, it wants crossings between Israel and the Strip to remain consistently open for a free and full movement of all types of goods and fuels. The disruption to the transfer of goods, which Defense Minister Barak orders when Hamas violates the truce, bothered the Gaza regime greatly and causes great damage to it. Therefore, Hamas wishes to press Israel to keep the crossings open regardless of the situation on the ground.
Moreover, Hamas wants the IDF to end its operations against Palestinian gunmen who get within hundreds of meters of the Gaza Strip fence (an area which the IDF designate as “security parameters.”) In addition, Hamas is interested in ending Israeli air attacks against rocket and mortar launching cells during or after such Palestinian strikes.
Israel’s conditions
The comments made by Defense Minister Ehud Barak in his latest visit to the southern town of Sderot show that Israel is also interested in continuing the lull. If the defense minister needed proof of this, he got it during his visit, when Sderot residents and council heads in the region explicitly told him that the lull is useful and needed.
However, Israel too has conditions for continuing the truce. First, an end to the activity undertaken by Gaza gunmen within hundreds of meters of the fence. Through this activity, Hamas creates an infrastructure for carrying out abductions and terror attacks in Israeli territory. This activity is also meant to make it more difficult for the IDF to enter Gaza if necessary.
In addition, Israel does not accept the continuation of the current situation, whereby Hamas occasionally fires rockets and mortar shells into Israeli territory. Indeed, there are no great casualties, and the damage this causes is slight, yet Israel cannot agree to see its citizens live in constant anxiety. Barak’s words implied that should these conditions not be met, the IDF will operation with increasing force. The nature of this response will apparently be discussed in the cabinet next week.
Part 2 of analysis by Ron Ben-Yishai to be published Sunday
