Ball in Israel’s court
Ultimately, decision on whether Gaza Strip lull will continue is in Israel’s hands
Part 2 of analysis by Ron Ben-Yishai
Hamas is attempting to create a “balance of terror” vis-à-vis Israel. It signals that if the IDF hurts group members near the Gaza fence and inside the Strip, Israeli citizens in the south will face constant fear and anxiety, and schools will remain closed.
The immediate reason for the escalation in Palestinian attacks on the south is the desire to avenge recent Palestinian casualties. However, the main goal of the heavy and deliberate fire is to press Israel to accept Hamas’ truce terms. Another reason for the attacks is to deter the Israeli government from applying the security doctrine used by the IDF in Gaza.
Part I
Ron Ben-Yishai
Both Hamas, Israel want Gaza Strip lull to continue, but not at any price
Hamas’ rocket fire is also a means to pressure Egypt to open the Rafah Crossing and release Hamas men detained by Cairo. Hamas is also trying, through the Egyptians, to press Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to release hundreds of Hamas men detained by Fatah forces in the West Bank. At this time, Hamas has no immediate lever it can use to press Abbas to release the prisoners, yet group members in Gaza know that Egypt can influence Abbas. Therefore, the escalation in fire on Israel is also meant to prompt Egypt into action.
In principle, what is happening now is similar to what you might see on a pool table: Rocket fire directed at Israel prompted the closure of crossings between Israel and the Strip; the population that faces distress turned to Egypt to provide for its needs and enable Gazans to get out. Several times this year, Egyptian police officers had to fire at Palestinians rushing towards the Philadelphi Route and Rafah Crossing. Egypt is interested in avoiding such situations, and therefore it has an interest in averting ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas.
Arabs fight, Jews get hit
Does all this seem complicated? Maybe even delusional? Most certainly. However, this is the reality in our region. When Arabs are fighting amongst themselves, the Jews get hit. There is no doubt that the growing fire is meant not only to create a balance of terror vis-à-vis Israel, so that it accepts Hamas’ terms for the truce, but also to press Egypt and Abbas.
Now, the ball is in Israel’s court. It is almost certain that Israel would ultimately show restraint, and it is likely that Hamas and its allies would stop firing rockets at some point. Quiet will prevail, but then it will be time for the critical test: How will the IDF act next time it identifies gunmen close to the Gaza fence? And what will happen when the IDF, in conjunction with the Shin Bet, identifies a tunnel being dug in Israel’s direction not far from the fence?
If the IDF continues to adhere to the current policy, that is, thwarting Hamas’ build up and deployment along the fence, we can assume that the lull will end soon. However, it is possible that Hamas and the other armed groups will decide that the lull is more important to them than setting up a frontal deployment line along the fence. If this happens, the IDF won’t have to operate.
However, it will be a few days before we can estimate whether the lull will continue for a few more weeks, or whether it is already over.
