'Assad ready for peace, if he gets what he wants'

"(Syrian) President Assad is willing to reach a peace agreement, if Israel and the United States give him what he wants," IDF Military Intelligence chief, Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, said on Monday evening.

Speaking at a conference in honor of the late Moshe Dayan at the center named after the late defense minister at Tel Aviv University, Yadlin presented the key points of the army's intelligence estimates of the challenges Israel will face this coming year.

What Assad wants, said Yadlin, "is for Israel to withdraw to the 1967 borders and a package from the US ensuring his regime's stability, one that will provide him with economic and military support. The hardest question to predict, however, is what Assad can give in return."

If Israel seeks an arrangement with Syria, warned Yadlin, it must take into account the changes that have occurred there over the past eight years. Namely the change in Syria's military capabilities and the fact that the Lebanese dowry Assad can bring has decreased.

"Assad will try to reach an agreement wherein he gets more than Egypt got but pays less than it did," said Yadlin.

The MI chief also addressed the situation with the Palestinians. "We have a unique opportunity to simultaneously examine the two ways the Palestinians are trying to realize their national objectives with," he said in speaking of the differences between the more moderate Fatah and extremist Islamist group Hamas.

"We have an opportunity here to implement a policy that would boost the moderates and adopt a heavy hand against the extremists, and by doing so have an impact on the direction the history between the two peoples takes.

Dialogue with Ahmadinejad?

Yadlin said the world is waiting to see how the financial crisis plays out, and how the new US administration under President-elect Barack Obama deals with the Iran, which he called "a regime with radical ideology and radical weapons."

Obama's election, he went on to say, has brought with it an opportunity to apply international pressure on Iran. He said dialogue with Iran "would not necessarily be negative."

Yadlin warned the upcoming Israeli general elections would be followed by significant threats, and said that in 2009 the Middle East would find itself making some difficult decisions about Iran, the economic

crisis and the radical axis that does not recognize Israel.

However, he said, the army believes that the probability of a war between Israel and its enemies over the next year is low. "But the potential for unplanned escalation is high. Israel's enemies will continue to test Israel's limits through steps they don't believe will result in a flare-up. Next year could therefore bring isolated events that may draw an Israeli response "and from there to a broad escalation."

Yadlin stressed that Israel's deterrent capabilities have not been eroded. "It isn't something you measure like ratings or sms results, but by the enemy's willingness to engage."