Gaza lull is dying
Hamas, Israel may be embroiled in large-scale clash in a matter of hours or days
The Gaza Strip lull is breathing its last breaths. The two sides are approaching a large-scale armed confrontation with giant leaps – this is the conclusion of Israel’s defense establishment as of Sunday night.
If anyone out there was fooling himself that there is still a possibility of a smooth shift from lull A to lull B, this slight hope dissipated Sunday. For the security establishment, the shift from the current situation to “other” situations – ranging from surgical strikes to the takeover of whole areas in Gaza – is a matter of hours to a few days.
The process of updating military plans in Gaza has been accelerated in the past month, and this was no coincidence. The political leadership already approved these plans. On the other hand, Gaza is armed to the teeth and has dug up a network of underground tunnels extending across dozens of kilometers.
For the time being, the escalation is in the form of a war of nerves and threats; the parties are waiting to see whether one of the sides will break down and step back. However, the chance of curbing the escalation is low. The armed clash is around the corner. It could be immediate or gradual; it could happen tomorrow or in two weeks. We need to get used to the idea that the lull period is ending.
On Sunday, two formulas were presented regarding the continuation of the lull, yet they are incommensurate with each other. In Cairo, Major General Gilad presented Defense Minister Barak’s position, which bluntly makes it clear that Israel is no longer willing to live with the regular Qassam and mortar fire in the framework of the lull.
Meanwhile, Hamas made full use of its anniversary celebrations in presenting its own ultimatum: An ongoing lull would only be granted in exchange for Israeli concessions such as the opening of Gaza crossings, the free movement of goods and people, the opening of the Rafah Crossing, the release of Hamas detainees in Egypt, the suspension of arrest operations targeting Hamas activists in the West Bank, etc.
Israel does not intend to let Hamas finish this lull boasting of achievements, yet Hamas has no intention of stopping the custom of firing at Israel whenever and wherever it sees fit. Moreover, the group also announced Sunday via its senior spokesmen that should Israel fail to show flexibility, Hamas will intensify its military operations. So what are we left with? Two parallel lines that cannot meet.
Seeking international legitimacy
In Israel, we saw Sunday the emergence of some optical illusion regarding a deep divide between Hamas officials in Damascus and the Gaza-based Hamas. Yet there was no such gap. There are indeed some disagreements between Mashaal in Damascus and Haniyeh in Gaza regarding various issues, and there are different nuances in the declarations they make, yet on the current issue there is much greater coordination between them than what may appear to be the case. Mashaal in Damascus said nothing that was much different than what Haniyeh in Gaza said. Both of them in fact said: We demand a different kind of lull; otherwise, there would be no lull.
So now Israel is starting to build international legitimacy for a military blow in Gaza against Hamas. The first move in building this legitimacy is persuading the moderate Arab world, European states, and the United States that Hamas was the one that made the lull crumble. On this front, Hamas in fact played into Israel's hands Sunday. Even the Egyptians, in their talks with Amos Gilad, were convinced that Israel is right and that things cannot go on like this.
The Egyptians did not like the huge show of force held by Hamas in Gaza Sunday to celebrate its 21st anniversary. They especially did not like Hamas' declarations that the national reconciliation process vis-à-vis Mahmoud Abbas has ended, and that on January 9th they will be appointing the next Palestinian president, namely the Palestinian parliament speaker - a Hamas member who is currently in prison. This is Hamas' response to the Egyptian and Saudi move dating back to November 26th and aimed at extending Abbas' term in office until 2010.
Yet in addition to the tensions, there are some cooling elements as well. The upcoming elections in Israel, for example, do not encourage an Israeli military move. Therefore, the defense minister is sticking to his mantra: If they don't fire at us, we won’t fire at them. Then, there is also the new US Administration; nobody yet knows how it will conduct itself vis-à-vis the Middle East.
