Bad news, good news
Russian missile system sold to Iran problematic, but not most advanced
The Russian missile system sold to Iran is bad news for Israel. The S-300 system's radar is capable of spotting about 100 targets and addressing 12 of them simultaneously; the missiles are capable of hitting aircraft that are more than 150 kilometers (roughly 100 miles) away at an altitude ranging from 25 meters to 30 kilometers, and even beyond that. Therefore, regular fighter jets will find it very hard to sneak towards their targets while flying at very low altitude, or firing their armaments from far off.
The Russians are claiming that the system is also capable of intercepting ballistic missiles at a range of more than 40 kilometers. The S-300 system's guidance system is very similar in its performance and characteristics to the American Patriot missile system, which is considered sophisticated. The missile is ready for use in a closed-off area, and there is no need to test it for 10 years. The entire system is also very quick to deploy.
The implication of this is that the moment the system is possessed by Iran and becomes operational, Israel's and America's ability to attack and neutralize Iran's missile and nuclear systems will be greatly eroded.
This is the bad news. The better news is that the Russians apparently sold the export model of the system, S-300pmu 1, which is less sophisticated and boasts inferior performance compared to the system's newest model, known as Favorit. The system's development started about 30 years ago, and we know that three or four different models of it exist.
The Russians do not sell the most advanced model to foreigners, for fear that the technology would make its way to the West. On the other hand, S-300 systems of the model sold to Iran were also sold to many other countries in the world, including China, India, and even Cyprus. The US possesses a model of this system sold by Belarus, and Turkey is about to receive the same system from the Russians. Both countries maintain tight military cooperation with Israel.
These facts point to the theoretical possibility that Israel would develop methods and means to overcome the impressive capabilities of the S-300 system, which Syria is also negotiating for with the Russians. However, it appears that the mission of finding a response to this system is not easy. The proof of this is the effort undertaken by Prime Minister Olmert in his last visit to Russia to convince Russian President Medvedev to refrain from selling the system to Iran and Syria. For the same reason, Defense Minister Ehud Barak urgently dispatched senior security official Amos Gilad to Moscow last week.
Yet another question is why Russia ignores Israel's pleas, Washington's requests, and even its own declarations - while signaling to Iran that it is willing to provide the system, or at latest major components of it. There are apparently three reasons for this:
- Russia wishes to become an influential factor in the Middle East, and as the Soviet Union did in the past, it uses arms supplies as leverage.
- Retaliate against the American intention to deploy missiles in the Czech Republic and in Poland, near the Russian border. It is very possible that the Russians wish to signal to the Obama Administration that if the US cancels its European missile program, Russia would refrain from supplying advanced missiles to Iran.
- The global financial crisis, which created a serious cash flow problem for Russia as well. One billion dollars from Iran could certainly help Medvedev.
