Going all the way
IDF ground incursion, mass reserve call-up meant to convey Israel’s determination
Part 2 of analysis
Once the IDF campaign got underway, Hamas realized that Israel will be undertaking a ground incursion, and therefore it was impossible to achieve the kind of surprise we saw in respect to the aerial assault. For that reason, the IDF started the ground operation with an artillery barrage that began at 4 pm Saturday. IDF cannons hit Hamas’ positions and roadside bombs located in what the group refers to as the “security zone’ next to the border. These positions were supposed to hinder the entry of IDF forces.
In addition, the cannons fired smoke shells that created a smoke screen – this made it difficult for Hamas to identify IDF forces and fire anti-tank missiles at them. By 6 pm, following the initial bombardment, which also involved Air Force and Navy forces, hundreds of tanks, armored personnel carries, bulldozers, and engineering units started to roll into Gaza.
The sound of the engines could be heard far away, while Gaza was shrouded in darkness. The explosions of shells and bombs dropped by the Air Force were the only thing lighting up the sky. Simultaneously, infantry forces from Golani, the paratroopers, and Givati started to march towards their targets. As armored corps forces and infantry troops approached the Gaza fence, they were covered by helicopters flying above them.
Hamas thoroughly prepared for this move. The organization intends to exact a heavy casualty toll from the IDF via roadside bombs, RPG rockets, anti-tank rockets, and mortar fire. The casualties are meant to enable Hamas to negotiate a ceasefire from a position of strength. The losses are also supposed to exert pressure on the Israeli public and government to end the campaign.
However, the IDF also prepared thoroughly and took Hamas’ intentions into account. Therefore, we can assume that the ground incursion will be feature several other surprising Israeli moves meant to destabilize Hamas’ military wing and thwart its plans. We can also assume that the IDF will attempt to refrain from physically entering densely populated areas in order to avoid harming Palestinian civilians and stay away from Hamas’ bombs. However, the IDF will attempt to isolate the areas where rocket launchers are located and neutralize them.
We should keep in mind that a ground maneuver that involves thousands of troops and armored vehicles is prone to mistakes, mishaps, and unexpected developments. We must not fool ourselves – our troops will suffer losses and rocket attacks on the home front will not end completely even during the ground incursion. However, should the move be successful and Hamas’ military wing will be gravely undermined, Hamas’ leadership will be forced to ask for a ceasefire – and more importantly, the group’s motivation to renew the rocket fire in the future would greatly decrease, just like what happened to Hizbullah in the wake of the Second Lebanon War.
The statements made by the defense minister and security cabinet prepare us for a long period of fighting that would be required if things go wrong and the objectives are not met. To that end, the cabinet approved the call-up of tens of thousands of reservists. This move was also meant to demonstrate to Hamas that Israel is determined to go all the way and stay in the Strip for a lengthy period of time even in the face of difficulties.
However, if everything will go more or less according to plan, Israel is expected to reach the Security Council session planned for Monday with greatly decreased rocket fire, enabling the government to insist on its ceasefire demands. At that point, we can expect the ground operation to be scaled back.
