Livni at Kadima rally before elections (Archive photo)
Photo: Yaron Brener
Labor leader Ehud Barak
Photo: AFP
Unite or disappear
Eitan Haber advises Kadima to merge with Labor party if it wishes to stick around
One need not be a historian and political researcher – and I am not one – in order to characterize Kadima as a fleeting phenomenon. However, in light of the elections results, and if Kadima wishes to stick around, it appears that it should find a way to unite with the Labor party.
Kadima Chairwoman
Hanoch Daum
Hanoch Daum unimpressed with Tzipi Livni’s conduct in the wake of general elections
These two parties are entrusted with the national responsibility to build a joint home. There is no room for two such parties here. There should be either Kadima or Labor, and if this does not happen, in the next elections one of them may be wiped out and disappear.
And don’t say it’s impossible. The phenomenon of the Dash Party (15 mandates in the 1977 elections,) which was fed up with Labor and to its own amazement brought the Likud’s Begin to power, had been analyzed to death by now. Books and studies have been published about Rafael Eitan’s Tzomet (eight mandates,) about the Centrist Party (six mandates) formed by Yitzhak Mordechai and his partners, and about Shinui (15 mandates) of one-time political magician Tommy Lapid.
There was good reason why all these parties, as well as others (such as the Pensioners’ Party in the latest elections) evaporated and became no more than footnotes in the annals of history; all these parties were right for their time. They had no vision, deep ideology, roots, or history. In many cases, there was no ideological connection between their Knesset members. They were doomed for failure.
Kadima is destined to follow suit: It has no way or ideology that is deeply rooted in the Israeli experience. It is difficult to imagine that a true line connects Haim Ramon to Tzachi Hanegbi, for example. In fact, Kadima was established as another Likud branch, along with some hitchhikers from Labor, some of whom realized they reached the end of the road and wanted “more.”
However, this is the second time that Kadima wins 28 Knesset seats, and at this time it is Israel’s largest party. This is no small matter. Tzipi Livni touched the premiership, and a quick glance at Kadima voters in the past elections showed, among other things, the need that apparently exists for this type of political shelter.
No need to wait long
The fact is that in the previous elections Kadima was built on the ruins of Likud and took away 26 of its mandates. In the latest elections, it was built on the ruins of Labor, Meretz, and the Pensioner’s Party and sent home 16-18 of their Knesset members.
Even if in some cases we are talking about the same voters, we are still dealing with about 40-45 mandates that are seeking a different home in every elections. Or if we express it in numerical terms: Almost one million voters do not bring the traditional endorsement from home to the polling stations and are open to being swayed. They are the ones who decide the fate of the two traditional parties, Likud and Labor.
The conclusion: If so many within Likud and Labor are willing to go for the diplomatic solution offered by Kadima – the two-state solution – then it is important and worthwhile for Labor, which also believes this is the right solution, to offer unity to Kadima. Had they acted this way this time, they would have 41 mandates now. This would have been the largest party by far, and it would have formed the government.
How so? Indeed, today the rightist bloc has 65 mandates, yet only Likud, the Jewish Home, and the National Union have a common political denominator. With all due respect, Lieberman, Shas, and the ultra-Orthodox parties tend, for some reason, to join every government. Lieberman stuck around with Sharon for a long time even though he objected to disengagement. Shas was already in the same government with Meretz.
Ezer Weizman once referred to these parties as “meteorologists” – they go out to the balcony once in a while, stick their finger out, see where the wind is blowing, and go with the flow.
The ideological ties that keep Kadima together are very loose already, yet should some of its members not be tempted to go back to Likud in exchange for some job, they would do well to think about joining forces with Labor in the upcoming Knesset, ahead of a joint bloc that would compete in the next elections.
They will not have to wait long for the next elections; the summer of 2010 or something like that.
