China holds the key
Obama needs Beijing’s help in order to resolve North Korean crisis
Part 2
Two effective sanctions still remain. The first one is a Chinese decision to curb the supply of oil, fuel, and goods to North Korea. The second one is a naval blockade against Pyongyang. The official objective would be the prevention of exportation of weapons of mass destruction, yet in practice such blockade would greatly limit international sailing and commerce.
The United Nations Security Council has already imposed severe sanctions against North Korea, in the wake of its first nuclear test about two and a half years ago. Yet it appears that the regime, headed by Kim Jong-il, is willing to allow its citizens to starve, as long as Pyongyang is able to maintain its nuclear and missile capabilities. Losing these capabilities may be perceived as a weakness, which would threaten the regime’s survivability.
Part 1
Ron Ben-Yishai
North Korea’s moves present grave international challenge for Obama
This move is not a new one – the Security Council imposed this sanction back in 2006. We are talking about a sort of naval blockade that would allow UN members to stop vessels traveling to or from North Korea in order to inspect them and ensure they do not carry weapons of mass destruction, missiles, or the components and materials needed in order to produce them in other countries. However, this clause in the 2006 decision was not implemented by the US and its allies for fear that utilizing it would prompt North Korea to embark on war.
This is also the reason why South Korea refused – up until this week – to join the international initiative aimed at curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The initiative has been signed by 95 states, including the US, Russia, France, Britain and Israel, and it aims among other things to prevent arms smuggling to Hamas in Gaza. China, India, and Pakistan refused to join. Yet at this time, after the threatened Seoul has joined in, North Korea made it clear that it would view any seizure of its vessels as a declaration of war – prompting an immediate and powerful military response.
Fateful trip to Beijing
The key to punishing and exerting pressure on Pyongyang is in China’s hands. For a few days now, members of the Security Council have engaged in closed-door consultations in respect to the response to the nuclear test. It is estimated that Russia would be willing to endorse stricter economic sanctions and possibly even the imposition of a naval blockade. However, for the time being China is keeping its cards close to its chest. Should Obama fail to enlist Beijing’s support, he is expected to fail. Therefore, everything now hinges on Defense Secretary Gates’ visit to China next week – it had been scheduled previously, and now takes on special significance.
As to the Iranian problem: The characteristics of the North Korean crisis are similar to the Tehran crisis in many ways. Yet officials in Tehran are not the only ones who closely monitor current and future developments in East Asia – officials in Cairo, Riyadh, the Gulf states, and of course Israel are doing the same. Even if Israel proceeds to completely halt settlement construction, evacuate all unauthorized West Bank outposts, and present the Palestinians with far-reaching gestures, the US has little chance of succeeding in the Middle Eastern theater should it fail the North Korean test.
