A wounded animal

Part 1 of analysis

The “Blue Camp’s” election victory in Lebanon is a result of fear, rather than hope. Members of all sects (with the exception of the Shiites) endorsed the Hariri camp, in order to prevent the Shiites from becoming the country’s dominant element and thereby turning Lebanon into a satellite state of the radical Shiite camp under Iran and Syria’s leadership.

Most of Lebanon’s citizens were concerned that a victory by the Hizbullah-led “Yellow Bloc” will prompt Lebanon, within a few years, to follow in the footsteps of Iraq in the wake of the American invasion; that is, a regime change. By controlling parliament, and by using wholly democratic means, Hizbullah and its allies could have changed election laws and possibly even the constitution, in a manner that would translate the Shiite majority (estimated at 40%) into absolute control of government institutions. Under such circumstances, all sects and their interests would be at the mercy of Nasrallah and at the mercy of Damascus and Tehran.

This scenario is a nightmare from a Lebanese point of view. The delicate balance between the sects is the key to the coexistence of the various sects and religions in Lebanon. Turning Lebanon into a Shiite state could push it into yet another civil war, which may even bring about the country’s collapse. Yet even before this nightmare would materialize, an elections victory by the Hizbullah-led camp could have had far-reaching implications – driving foreign companies out of Lebanon, and putting an end to the flow of investments and aid money from the West and from Gulf states. This would have exacerbated the already grave economic situation.

Another concern was that Lebanon would turn into an Iranian outpost, with Tehran deciding when it wishes to clash with Israel, while Lebanon’s citizens pay the price. The Lebanese were not scared that Hizbullah would turn Lebanon into a state governed by Shiite religious laws, at least not in the near future. However, there are substantial fears that the special cultural and diplomatic ties with the West would wane as Lebanon turns into an Iranian satellite.

Lebanon’s isolation in the Arab and international arena greatly frightens the Christians, Sunnis, and Druze, who draw their power and special status in the national and international arena from their ties with the West.

Nasrallah has only himself to blame: The ruin he brought upon Lebanon with the provocation that led to the war against Israel; the threats of revenge for Mugniyah’s assassination; the brief civil war he embarked on in order to force the Siniora government to grant him veto power in parliament; the complete subjugation to Iranian interests; and the ceaseless intervention in the Israeli-Palestinian arena all served to deter most members of other sects.

They realized that should Hizbullah and its allies formally take over government institutions, the limited ability to enlist international support in case Israel embarks on a destructive war would be lost. Nasrallah attempted, in vain, to display restraint and a sense of responsibility ahead of the elections – the Lebanese know very well who they are dealing with. They know that the Hizbullah-Iran leopard will not be changing its spots.

However, this leopard is currently a wounded animal, and therefore it is dangerous. Seemingly, nothing has changed in Lebanon in the wake of the elections: The March 14 Bloc, which is loyal to Hariri, maintained its power, while Hizbullah lost a little of its parliamentary power. In addition, it is quite clear that Nasrallah can still do whatever he wishes in Lebanon, and that nobody will attempt to take away Hizbullah’s missiles or dismantle its fortifications in the south, north of the Litani, and in the Bekaa Valley region.

However, Hizbullah is frustrated and furious, as are the Iranians and Syrians. The statements made by Hizbullah leaders, who said they will accept the voters’ decision, do not delude anyone in Lebanon or beyond it; it is wholly reasonable to assume that Hizbullah will try to prove to Lebanon’s citizens that they made a mistake when they prevented it from sinking its teeth into a bigger share of the government pie.

Part 2 of analysis to be published Tuesday night