Ronen Bergman
Photo: Dor Malka
Cause for concern
Gilad Shalit's release through prisoner swap with Hamas not a done deal yet
In the wake of Hamas' conduct this past week, for the first time in long months we can now express certain concern about Gilad Shalit's imminent release.
This is the first time since the negotiations started, under German mediation, where Hamas did not adhere to the timetable agreed upon by the sides. This apparently reflects internal disagreements within the group.
According to the proposed outline for the swap, at first we will see the release of 450 Palestinian detainees, most of whom are Hamas men. Following Shalit's release, Israel will release another group of 550 detainees, considered relatively "lighter."
The latter release will be characterized as a humanitarian gesture on the part of the Israeli government; a sign of appreciation and respect for the Egyptian and German governments. The second release date has not yet been determined.
A Hamas delegation that is not allowed to make decisions left Gaza to Cairo and held talks there with top Egyptian intelligence officials. Delegation representative Mahmoud al-Zahar left for Damascus, ostensibly in order to receive the go-ahead of Khaled Mashal and other Hamas leaders. However, it is clear that principled discussions were held there regarding the execution of the overall deal.
Hamas knows that finalizing the prisoner swap at this time would involve giving up on several prisoners that Israel is unwilling to release. Some think that Mashal believes that not finalizing the deal at this time is not necessarily bad for his group. Hamas asked to first decide on the manner in which the two groups of prisoners will be released and only later try to resolve the gaps in respect to the names on the list.
Now, all sides are waiting for Hamas' final answer. Palestinian sources are saying that Al-Zahar wants to cut a deal, but Hamas members in Damascus, and possibly even Mashal himself, seek to adopt a tougher stance.
