Deterrence tested in Gaza
Ron Ben-Yishai offers analysis following first lethal Qassam attack since Operation Cast Lead
The Qassam rocket that killed a Thai laborer in the Negev Thursday poses a test for the IDF's deterrence and response policy. Since Operation Cast Lead, for more than a year, more than 330 rockets and mortar shells had been fired from the Gaza Strip. During the same period, several attacks were carried out along the Gaza fence and at sea. The perpetrators of almost all the (sporadic and ineffective) rocket attacks, as well as the strikes along the fence, were members of "rogue" groups such as the Islamic Jihad and radical Islam groups. These organizations are motivated by the radical ideology of Global Jihad and al-Qaeda, and their goal is to continue the armed struggle against Israel.
The State of Israel has a similar interest in maintaining the relative calm that had taken root on the Gaza border as result of the deterrence created by Cast Lead among the Palestinians, and especially among Hamas' leadership. "Arrangement through deterrence" is how security officials refer to this unofficial and unwritten agreement between Israel and Hamas that has maintained the relative quiet in the western Negev.
One of these groups claimed responsibility for both Wednesday's and Thursday's rocket attacks. Meanwhile, Hamas members have refrained almost completely from firing rockets or directing attacks at Israel over the past year or so. This was done as not to provide Israel with a pretext to deploy the IDF for another operation in the Strip, and in order not to enhance the distress faced by Gaza civilians.
Lethal Attack
Shmulik Hadad
Rocket fired from Gaza hits Israeli territory for third time in last 24 hours, killing Thai foreign worker in Netiv Ha'asara greenhouse. Ansar al-Suna Brigades claim responsibility for attack
Hence, the IDF's response to attacks launched by rogue groups was restrained and expected. In cases where the rocket cells and attackers were spotted while preparing for execution, the IDF targeted them from the air and from the ground. In cases where rockets were fired, the IDF responded with aerial bombardment of smuggling tunnels under the Philadelphi Route and also hit tunnels aimed for attacks as well as facilities and means used for producing rockets and weapons.
The objective of these retaliatory attacks was to mostly hit Hamas "assets," even though the group's members were uninvolved in the attacks. This was done because Israel holds Hamas, which is in power in Gaza, responsible for what goes on in the Strip. The bombings were meant to motivate Hamas to enforce the "arrangement" on the rogue groups that challenge its rule.
Equation has changed
Hamas makes an effort not to clash with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which is supported and to a large extent activated by Iran, even when group members occasionally fire at Israel. Meanwhile, Islamic Jihad attempts not to embarrass Hamas. Hence, the main challenge for Hamas (and for Israel) is to restrain Global Jihad groups. In some cases, Hamas brutally clashed with these groups, when they openly challenge its rule and accused it of caving in to Israel's edicts. However, Hamas usually shows caution in acts meant to restrain attackers who fire at Israel. Members of Hamas' operational force usually detain radical Islam men before or after attacks, confiscate their weapons, warn them, and then release them.As noted, the IDF has thus far shown relative restraint in its response to attacks directed at our territory. One of the important reasons for this is the criticism leveled at Israel internationally because of the Goldstone Report and Gaza blockade. Another reason is that these rocket attacks are usually inefficient and sporadic. A third reason is the "understanding" shown to the difficulties faced by Hamas, which genuinely attempts to prevent attacks. However, the rocket that killed a man in Israel Thursday changed the equation.
In Israel and in the world too, we have seen an entrenched practice in the past dozens of years whereby bloodshed comes with a different "price tag" compared to failed attacks. Hence, we can assume that this time the IDF will respond to an extent that would cause severe damage to Hamas. Among other reasons, this is the case because it's quite clear that the frequent rocket fire in the past day was carried out as result of Hamas incitement and the calls by its leaders for an Intifada, in the context of tensions in Jerusalem over the holy sites. It's also possible that Hamas turned a blind eye to preparations for the rocket attack even if it knew about them.
However, in crafting a response, Israel's political and military leaders will also take into account the fact that the European Union's foreign policy chief, Catharine Ashton, is currently visiting the region. She was in fact in Gaza when the lethal rocket was fired. In light of these considerations, we can assume that the response expected by Hamas will be carried out in a way that will make it clear to the group that Israel's patience is limited, and that honoring and enforcing the unwritten agreement in Gaza is first and foremost a Hamas interest.
