Israel’s economic outlook
Op-ed: Don't only ask what you can do for your country, but what kind of country you want to live in
With all due respect to Stanley Fischer and Yuval Steinitz, our fate in the coming year will not be determined by the central bank's interest rates, or even the two-year budgets. Whoever wants to understand what will happen to the Israeli economy must recognize the threats that we would rather repress and the opportunities that we tend to miss.
War and peace
I don't believe the prime minister. That could be my problem. During his first term, Benjamin Netanyahu talked about history instead of making it. His festive declarations last week in Washington sounded like the empty promises of a skilled actor, not Ben-Gurion, not Begin and not Rabin. Hopefully, I'm wrong. If he secures an agreement with the Palestinians in the coming year, it will be the miracle of 5771. In the meantime, my suggestion is: Be suspicious.
5771 is the year to decide between peace and war. Whoever does not make peace will be dragged into war. And the next war will not only shatter the illusion that we can sit back like Yitzhak Shamir, but it will also burst the last remaining bubble, which has remained almost unharmed: Central Israel’s immunity to missiles. You don't have to be Yoav Galant to understand what the next war will be like.
Denial and indifference
According to foreign reports, Israel is evaluating its ability to attack nuclear facilities in Iran. There are certainly those who have already drawn detailed plans. And scenarios. And masks. Some people are probably already planning and training here and there. And elsewhere too. The IDF is doing what an army does – planning to carry out an order, if and when. Are we preparing as well?
In the meantime, we're preparing ourselves according to the best Jewish tradition: Demonstrated disregard. An attack on Iran will instigate a war that will change the face of Israel. Its implications will be terrifying and long-term. But we refuse to even think about this and prefer to snooze by our air-conditioners. No one is talking. No one is getting up. Denial and indifference will kill us.
Left and Right
There are people who prefer to blur the difference between Right and Left. It's easy. Some people debate between Right and Left depending on the times. I'll admit that I've moved Right and Left more than once. Some people say: Why argue about the price of peace, there's no partner on the other side. I'll admit that Yasser Arafat convinced me that there was no one to talk to. But his successors, not all of them, are realistic people who are persistently trying to build an economy, not bombs. Maybe there is someone to talk to.
On Rosh Hashana, every Israeli must redefine their position. After all of the words, beliefs, opinions and turnabouts, whoever is willing to divide the land between the Jordan River and the sea into two states is on one side of the divide, and those who want to keep dragging their feet is on the other side. Two states for two peoples or a bi-national state that will put an end to the State of Israel? You choose, but don't lie to yourselves by saying that there is a third option for the laid back deliberators in the center of the political map. There isn't, and there won't be.
International relations
The finance minister visited the Calcalist offices a few weeks ago. I asked Dr. Steinitz whether in his opinion the hostility and hatred for Israel, which intensified over the past year, harm our economy. The finance minister replied, in his usual manner, that the economy is excellent, and certainly has been since he entered his post in April 2009.
I'm not sure the economy’s stability and achievements is specifically linked to Steinitz, but Steinitz, as well as other ministers and leaders, is blind. Many exporters already sense that their goods are not wanted. The damages will increase in the coming year, as long as Israel turns into a pariah state.
Economy and society
The central questions in the fields of economy and society that must be on all of our minds in the coming year are only loosely linked to "centralization." I suggest that some critical issues be urgently addressed in 5771: Increasing economic growth in a manner that will allow many more Israelis to enjoy its benefits; investing in education and science, which will grant a qualitative advantage to the next generation; pushing the haredim and Arabs into the workforce; dramatically reducing social gaps; increasing the supply of homes and apartments to ensure affordable housing, and improving public administration systems, their efficiency and transparency.
There is no need to appoint committees for most of these major issues. Intelligent leaders with a vision, who can level-headedly analyze real problems, are needed. In the past year some government ministers and Knesset members focused on short-term populism. They'll most likely be around in 5771, but nevertheless, in honor of the holiday, I dare wish them, and us, that they look beyond the empty daily headlines. Sometimes dreams come true.
Bubbles and donations
The Israeli business community is creative and vigorous. It has swindlers and scoundrels, but the community consists mainly of entrepreneurs and managers who skillfully and daringly created a developed industry, sophisticated banking and advanced media. In some sectors, Israeli companies, like Check Point, still beat huge international companies. Others made grand exits. It is no coincidence that resourceful Israelis are among the first to spot rare opportunities in remote areas.
I hold much respect for their outstanding achievements, but have a hard time understanding their detachment from what is taking place outside their upscale business towers and exclusive neighborhood bubbles. The business community consists of some wonderful people who generously donate their money to worthy causes, but we don't need donations. NICE Systems CEO Haim Shani, who offered to serve as CEO of the Treasury, is giving us a more important contribution. The talented entrepreneurs and managers can't leave the country to the politicians. Let's see you in 5771.
Spells and amulets
Israel was built on the principles of work and excellence. Our immigrants worked from sunrise until exhaustion. They urged their children to study, strive for excellence and think about the future. Against all odds, they established a magnificent country, with an abundance of fantastic achievements. But something went wrong along the way.
More and more Israelis, and not just haredim, grant their children inadequate education, without a core. They look for tasks, not work. They'd rather be idle than create opportunities for themselves. Rather than help themselves, they appeal to the heavens. They believe in amulets and spells, rather than the religion of work and excellence.
Ignorance threatens to strangle our chances of safeguarding our place in the developed world. Should the amulets and spells defeat the laboratories and science – we'll quickly become a developing country, lagging behind. The slope is slippery.
Journalism and thuggery
One last comment on the public discourse: The Israeli media dishonored itself in the past year. The competition was not healthy. Television networks become channels of entertainment and repression. Some papers adopted a loud, self-righteous form of thuggery devoted to the cause, like Pravda. They crossed off the line separating news and opinion and terrorized whoever dared hold a different opinion - and to hell with ethics.
We aren't perfect either, but we're trying to produce a paper, not a political party and not a lobby. I'll take the opportunity to say that the opinions expressed in this column represent only me. I would be happy if Calcalist journalists and editors disagree with me in their columns. May a thousand flowers, of all colors and sizes, bloom.
Shana Tova.
Yoel Esteron is the founder and publisher of business daily Calcalist
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