The Iranian bear hug
Op-ed: Despite warm welcome, Ahmadinejad visit provokes great unease among Lebanese
The Iranian president's visit to Lebanon is mostly meant to show support for Hezbollah ahead of the complex tests expected to be faced by the group in the Lebanese theater, while also boosting the Iran-Hezbollah deterrence vis-à-vis Israel. Yet at the same time, the visit is meant to boost Iran's global status and Ahmadinejad's domestic status.
Hezbollah needs Ahmadinejad's show of support, because the group fears the report to be published by the UN team probing the assassination of late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Based on leaks, the report will point to three senior Hezbollah figures as the main culprits. Should the information receive an official stamp of approval, the report's publication may ignite violent clashes, mostly between Sunnis and Hezbollah (Hariri was Sunni and so is his son, the current prime minister.)
Such clashes may spread and include other sects, even though none of Lebanon's sane leaders, including Hariri, want to see a resumption of the civil war. In order to prevent clashes and allay tensions, Saudi Arabia's king and Syrian President Assad - who have influence over Lebanese President Suleiman and PM Hariri - visited Lebanon recently. Now, Ahmadinejad has arrived as Hezbollah's defender, to signal to the other sects that they are not only dealing with Nasrallah here, but also with a major Mideastern power that firmly supports the Shiite group.
The visit is also meant to serve several strategic Iranian interests. It aims to show that Iran, despite the sanctions and condemnations against it, is not isolated in the international theater. The huge welcome signs on the streets, the honor bestowed on Ahmadinejad, and the ingratiation on Hezbollah's radio and television stations was meant to show the Iranian people that their country and president are a major force of influence in the Mideastern and global arena.
To that end, the Iranian leader was expected to offer Lebanon military aid and assistance with civilian projects. This will illustrate that Iran views Lebanon as an asset and would assist it, should Beirut agree to turn its back to the Americans and the West.
Lebanese leaders, including President Suleiman and Prime Minister Hariri are meeting with Ahmadinejad involuntarily, as not to infuriate him and Hezbollah's leadership. They will apparently welcome the economic assistance to be offered by Iran, yet for the time being they are expected to politely dismiss the military aid proposals. They know that even Syria does not favorably view Iran's attempt to turn Lebanon into a Shiite religious state loyal to Tehran. Hence, not only the West but also Damascus is not too pleased by Ahmadinejad's Lebanon visit, at a time when Syria is able to boost its influence in the Land of the Cedars.
Formidable missile arsenal
Ahmadinejad arrived in Lebanon like a master who shows up at the inauguration ceremony of his successful company's flagship project. Iran invested about $5 billion in the Hezbollah project. The building of Hezbollah's rocket and missile arsenal is almost complete, and there are few such arsenals in the world in terms of size and power of destruction. The establishment of a sophisticated fortification system that would enable Hezbollah to protect its rockets is also in very advanced stages.Beirut's southern neighborhoods, destroyed during the 2006 war, had been rebuilt, as were southern Lebanon villages. With Iranian funding, Hezbollah established neighborhoods that can be used both as both defense compounds and modern housing solutions in about 100 of the 160 villages in southern Lebanon. The group managed to tempt Shiites to move to the area via modern, cheap housing to replace the thousands of residents who left after 2006.
Ahmadinejad will tour these sites accompanied by cameras in order to illustrate to the Lebanese where their bread and butter lies, and also to make it clear to Israel that Hezbollah's rocket and missile arsenal is at Iran's disposal should Israel and the Americans, together or alone, dare strike Iran's nuclear sites.
Ahmadinejad is supposed to illustrate this point when he visits the mountainous village of Maroun al-Ras, located less than a kilometer away from the Israel border. From there, he would be able to see the red roofs of nearby Israeli communities, as he inaugurates a model of the al-Aqsa mosque built ahead of the visit. This is a clear sign that Iran intends to utilize Hezbollah not only to threaten Israel should it strike, but also, one of these days, to achieve the sought-after target of liberating Jerusalem and Palestine.
Lebanon's residents understand well why Ahmadinejad is arriving at this time and what he seeks to secure. Hence, it is no wonder that the visit raises great concern and revulsion among them. The Sunnis, Christians and Druze fear that the visit opens a new stage in Hezbollah's political takeover and the turning of their country, with Iran's assistance, into a religious Shiite state. Even Shiites who just built a home or entered their new apartment in southern Lebanon are concerned now. The visit makes it clear to them that the generous Iranian assistance has a price, and that everything they got may evaporate sooner or later in clouds of smoke and fire, when the Iranian patron decides to utilize its long arm, from their homes.
These fears by members of all sects in Lebanon prompted Nasrallah to advise Ahmadinejad to stay away from the border with Israel, in order to avoid what may be perceived as a reckless provocation. Nasrallah wishes to portray himself as a responsible party who does not serve Iran's interests, but rather, those of the entire Lebanese people. His Iranian patron understands it, agrees with him, and conducts himself accordingly.
