It would be enough to give some thought to the implications of the Shah’s fall in Iran in 1979 on current-day Israel
in order to understand the disaster that may befall us as result of what is happening
in Egypt right before our eyes.
Back then, just like today, the New York Times and many liberals took pleasure in the revolution of freedom undertaken by the young people. Back then, the freedom-hungry youngsters became a victim of the ayatollahs. We can assume that ElBaradei and his comrades will be eaten up by the Muslim Brothers even more easily.
Back then, in Iran,
the communists at least were well organized and relatively powerful. Today in Egypt there is no powerful opposition party, and one of them is already under the Muslim Brothers’ control.
Such outcome would bring Israel back to the situation it faced in 1966, when almost everyone around us was a staunch enemy. We can assume that in the wake of the alliance to be formed between an Egypt controlled by the Muslim Brothers and Iran, the Gulf states will also be joining the Iranian-Egyptian-Hezbollah-Hamas axis out of fear.
Here’s a great point of comfort: How wonderful, retrospectively, that former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert did not give up our control in Judea and Samaria and did not divide Jerusalem. At least the Iranians, the Muslims Brothers’ Egypt, Hezbollah and Hamas would not be able to fight us from point blank range out of Jerusalem’s Muslim Quarter.
And there is yet another glimmer of hope, although it’s a slim one as result of President Barack Obama’s weak leadership. Perhaps the Americans will operate in force against the axis of evil topped by Iran in order to prevent the Gulf states’ capitulation; by doing so, the US would prevent the required financing for the Egyptian war effort against us under the Muslim Brothers’ leadership.
Iran on its own, if all it wants to do in the future is turn Egypt into a base for assaulting Israel (as was done in Gaza and Lebanon) would not be able to do it alone.
The writer is a researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University