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The army chief’s challenge
Op-ed: Chief of Staff Gantz facing dramatic regional changes under worst possible conditions
The IDF intelligence branch issued the warning. It characterized 2011 as a “strategic year” – a year of turnarounds. The annual assessment produced by Military Intelligence is not just another theoretical paper; it is a managerial alert and warning for our political leadership and IDF leaders. They’re supposed to do something with it.
Our top brass can decide that for the time being we shall hold our position, observe and prepare. It can also decide that we need to start investing human and economic resources in boosting certain capabilities and reinforcing international ties, in order to prepare for the changes. One way or another, we must make a decision.
And here, Benny Gantz plays a key role. The incoming chief of staff is facing a much greater burden than what his predecessor faced. While Gabi Ashkenazi arrived as a savior, nobody is cheering Gantz on. The disputes at the top reduced the status of the army chief’s office, yet the IDF chief is still the main bolt in our defense work, and when Military Intelligence sounds the alarm over strategic changes, this has far-reaching implications.
In 2011, an army chief who is a public relations whiz won’t suffice. We need a chief of staff who’s a strategic whiz. An officer with foresight, broad vision, the ability to prioritize, and sound judgment; a man who can execute and take decisions. Otherwise, he will be pushed to the side and someone else will do his thinking for him.
The IDF needs to be ready to be utilized at any point in time. Hence, it won’t be enough for the public to accept the army chief; he needs to be perceived as an authority, both by the General Staff and by the people. The political leadership needs to look up to him, and not the other way around. He needs to help them take risks, make it clear what comes at the expense of what, and present them with solutions rather than questions.
From now on, Gantz and Defense Minister Ehud Barak must maintain an intimate, open dialogue. Such dialogue must also be maintained with the prime minister, Treasury, Foreign Office, Homeland Security Ministry, and home front defense apparatuses. Genuine brainstorming must also be maintained vis-à-vis General Staff officers, brigade commanders, and division commanders.
Jordan is region’s litmus test
The IDF intelligence branch’s assessment for the coming year points to the change in Egypt as the heart of the strategic turnaround, yet it doesn’t end there. There is also the beginning of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, completion of the American pullout from Iraq, a pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian regime in Lebanon, the possibility of unrest in Saudi Arabia, UN recognition of a Palestinian state at the end of the year, the possibility of unrest ahead of municipal West Bank elections in June, and anarchy in the Sinai.
Most importantly, there is the possibility of the collapse of our defense ties on the “western front,” vis-à-vis Egypt, and on the “eastern front,” vis-à-vis Jordan.
Officials in Amman took notice of the cold shoulder Obama gave Mubarak. The Jordanian army is still in the barracks, yet on high alert ahead of possible riots. In recent weeks, the royal court had been preoccupied with intense discussions in the face of radical Islamic threats, and the conclusion reached by the king’s loyalists is that steps should be taken to show less dependence on the US or connection to Israel. For example, open meetings with Hamas men, and meetings that are not as public with Iranian officials.
Jordan is the region’s litmus test. It was always the first to smell turnarounds. Israel may end up facing two new-old fronts: Egypt and Jordan. That would require decisions on a whole different scale than during Ashkenazi’s era. This is also a different league in terms of the General Staff and the relations among the top defense echelon. Here, good gunmanship won’t suffice.
Gantz is thrown into this cauldron under the worst possible terms. He does not have even one day of mercy. He needs to by the army chief who builds up our power ahead of a complex strategic year. If the army continues to deal with public relations and praising itself, we won’t be prepared.
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