Don’t write off Lieberman

Op-ed: In absence of bribery charges, Foreign Minister Lieberman likely to survive indictment

Reuters | Published: 04.14.11, 18:30

There is no point in starting to count down the days of the Netanyahu government. Anyone predicting Lieberman’s next moves is doing it without guarantees. The man is unexpected and his considerations cannot be gauged. This is most certainly true before he fully utilizes what the law affords him, that is, the right for a hearing.

Make no mistake about it: The offences prompting Lieberman’s possible indictment are grave: Fraud, breach of trust, money laundering and witnesses tampering are not violations that should be downplayed – certainly not in respect to the chairman of a large party and the State of Israel’s foreign minister.

However, after so many years, with one affair following another, endless interrogations, foot-dragging, and intolerable delays by prosecutors – the package presented Wednesday by the Justice Ministry is perceived as less grave than expected. That’s the case when building up expectations, something that was very much done around here.

In the absence of bribery offences, which were the heart of the matter, the whole story appears like something that Lieberman will be able to survive; the Netanyahu government will withstand it, and the political system will digest it – not to mention Lieberman’s voters, with polls showing that the support for him keeps rising.

Lieberman is a sophisticated and level-headed politician. As opposed to Netanyahu, who makes his decisions based on the views of the last person he spoke to, Lieberman listens to everyone and makes his own decisions.

Plea bargain possible

One possibility is that Lieberman will demand to be granted several months in order to study the material against him, and then, immediately before or after the hearing, he will topple the government and lead the country to new elections.

During the election campaign, no indictment will be served against him and according to the polls he’s expected to win a large number of seats, so that he will arrive at the trial as the head of a large party (or even as prime minister, as he hopes.)

Another possibility is that he will adopt the Tzachi Hanegbi model. In that case, Lieberman will seek to complete the legal proceedings as quickly as possible. He will accelerate the hearing, and if an indictment is ultimately served against him, he will ask for a quick trial or a plea bargain. He will be convicted of offences that carry moral turpitude, but without jail time.

Just like Hanegbi, Lieberman would then quit the Knesset, yet in the next elections he would be able to run as the head of Yisrael Beiteinu. That way he will again make his way to the next Knesset, and possibly into the government, with the whole affair behind him.

In any case, if Lieberman nonetheless decides to topple the Netanyahu government, the motive will be political. That will happen after he portrays the government as one that abandoned its path and disappointed rightist voters.