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Expert: Bin Laden's death to prompt terror waves

Researchers: Assassination not a grave blow to phenomenon known as al-Qaeda

Global terror sustains harsh blow, but not a grave one: Israeli experts told Ynet Monday that while Osama bin Laden's assassination carries symbolic significance, it will not end global terrorism.

 

Following bin Laden's death, the world should expect terror waves to avenge the al-Qaeda leader's killing, one expert warned.

 

In the wake of the bin Laden era, terror groups worldwide will have growing motivation to carry out revenge attacks, said Dr. Boaz Ganor, who heads the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya.

 

In the immediate future, terrorists will attempt to target US embassies worldwide as well as American citizens and symbols, he said. Next, terror groups will aim to initiate attacks to be carried out by radical Islamists in the Western world, such as the London bombing in 2005, he added.

 

In the intermediate term, Ganor said, al-Qaeda affiliates may carry out major attacks against US and Western targets, especially in the Middle East and Africa. Yemen may be prone be particularly prone for such attacks, he said.

 

In the long term, al-Qaeda may attempt to carry out a mega-attack similar in scope to the September 11 offensive, Ganor said.

 

"Such attack, should it take place, will likely be carried out in the longer term given the need to get organized and prepare such complex operation," he said. "In recent years, al-Qaeda tried to carry out attacks of such scope by failed, mostly as result of better US intelligence capabilities as well as limited abilities due to Western blows."

 

Professor Eyal Zisser, who heads Tel Aviv University's Humanities Faculty and specializes in Middle East affairs, told Ynet that "bin Laden was the man who established the terror organization, the 'brains' behind it and the man who financed its activity, and in this respect this is a serious blow to the organization."

"However, this does not mark the elimination of global terror," he said.

 

'Bin Laden an immortal symbol'

Al-Qaeda does not feature a clear hierarchy, but rather, is built as a network spread worldwide with its various parts operating independently, Zisser said. The notion of using Jihad against the enemy has become widespread and can be seen in local events that have no direct connection to the organization or its leader, he said.

 

Ben Gurion University Professor Yoram Meital reinforced the analysis, noting that al-Qaeda "is a phenomenon that for a while now includes expressions of changing terror, rather than one organization where decisions are taken in an orderly manner."

 

"Hence, on the practical level it will be wrong to assume that bin Laden's assassination will constitute a grave blow to the phenomenon known as al-Qaeda," he said. "There is no doubt that symbols have power, and hence bin Laden's elimination has a great impact, yet on the other hand we must realize that he has turned into an immortal symbol for his supporters."

 

"The operation does not constitute the elimination of global terror, because to my regret there are enough fanatics out there with deep hatred for the West, who will continue bin Laden's path," said Professor Efraim Inbar, who heads Bar-Ilan University's Begin-Sadat Center. "We can assume that he will turn into a martyr now and continue to attract disturbed people in the Muslim world who are motivated by frustration and believe in the notion of murdering others."

Boaz Fyler contributed to the report

 

 


פרסום ראשון: 05.03.11, 00:15
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