Danny Rubinstein
צילום: שאול גולן
Beware economic tsunami
Op-ed: As opposed to past, Israel may pay economic price as result of Palestinian uprising
The “diplomatic tsunami in September,” as Defense Minister Ehud Barak dubbed it, may be disastrous for the Palestinian economy – but also gravely damage Israel’s economy.
Israeli-Palestinian history shows us that this was not the case in the past. The first Intifada, which started in 1987, and more so the second Intifada 13 years later, indeed caused immense damage to the Palestinian economy: The standard of living declined, production was curbed, unemployment skyrocketed, and in Gaza the Palestinians managed to survive only thanks to global donations.
However, in the previous rounds of confrontation Israel’s economy was barely affected.
The reason for that was that while the Palestinian economy depends on Israel’s economy, this dependency is not mutual. And so, for example, the policy of imposing a closure on the territories began some 20 years ago, Palestinian laborers gradually stopped working in Israel, and were replaced by hundreds of thousands of foreign workers.
Today the situation is different. Israel’s economy may be undermined in some three months, mostly in light of the political changes prompted by the upheaval in the Arab world, which greatly minimized the maneuvering space for the Arab struggle against Israel in general, and the Palestinian fight in particular.
The days of clashes involving tens of thousands of soldiers, tank battalions, jets and battle ships are long gone. In addition, it appears that the option of terrorism exhausted itself. The familiar terror was replaced by the threat of tens of thousands of missiles and rockets deployed in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza and capable of reaching all parts of Israel.
On this front, we have created a balance of terror whereby the Syrians and Lebanese know that should missiles hit Tel Aviv, Damascus and Beirut may be razed. The problem is that, regrettably, the peace deal option does not exist either. The gap between the Israeli government’s positions and the Palestinian Authority’s stance appears unbridgeable.
Harsh global reaction
The upheaval in the Arab world dictated a new option for the struggle: Mass popular protests, without resorting to violence. If it worked in Tunisia and in Egypt, why shouldn’t it work against Israel, the Palestinians wonder?
Indeed, for some time now we have seen minor popular struggles taking place in the West bank and in east Jerusalem. Non-violent protests are being held every Friday in several villages and Jerusalem neighborhoods. The PA encourages this struggle, just like it orchestrates the boycott campaign against settlement products.
Today, only hundreds of people take part in these protests, but thousands and even tens of thousands may arrive later.
What will happen should the masses march to the Kalandia Crossing or mount the fences of Kiryat Arba? A violent clash will surely ensue. Israel’s defense establishment will respond using the familiar modus operandi: Shots, arrests, roadblocks, closures and curfews. The Palestinian economy will retreat, as happened in the past, and successful projects such as Bethlehem’s new industrial zone, built with French assistance, or the construction of the new city al-Rawabi, will be frozen.
The new element may be international reaction that is much harsher than we’ve seen in the past. Not only resolutions and condemnations will be on the agenda, but also economic blows against Israel: A boycott on Israeli commerce and goods, annulled contracts, and failure to invite us to global events. The diplomatic tsunami could hence quickly turn into an economic tsunami – not only in Palestinian areas but here too.
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