Eitan Haber
צילום: מאיר פרטוש
The long-term threat
Op-ed: Islamic coalition taking shape around us while Israel’s national strength is waning
The developments around us, especially in Egypt, raise the level of anxiety around here. Some 75% of Egypt’s parliament comprises radical Islamic parties and prompts concerns and questions here, such a “what does the future hold?” and “will a war break out?” The immediate answer to these questions is: “In the near future we shall see nothing new.”
To those watching television with horror and seeing the hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi parliamentarians, who all hate Israel, we can say that they pose (almost) no threat in the coming years. We can assume that a war will not break out between Israel and Egypt.
The new government and president in Egypt will need long years to rehabilitate the economy, which is doing terribly at this time. Should they wish to use their army against Israel, they shall face another major problem: The Egyptian army is almost entirely American and its weapons arrive from the United States – almost $2 billion a year, and all of it thanks to Egypt’s peace with Israel.
The Egyptians, in their current state, cannot afford to give up these perks.
The next government in Egypt will not be able to dramatically improve the economy. Moreover, the Islamists seek to keep their subjects poor, yet not hungry. They will always make sure to provide pita bread and water, but no more. Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood’s emissaries are focusing on the social and religious side. They have time.
Islamist patience
The Islamists are patiently waiting for the tree to bear fruit, and only then they shall be shaking it up. At this time, the Brotherhood cares more about the number of mosques in Cairo than about the number of tanks in the Egyptian army.
However, there is a big “but” here: We already learned that in the Middle East, the timeframes of our Arab neighbors are very different than our own. In this region, we must look at fundamental processes, here and there. And on this front, we have a problem.
While the Arab side is moving towards forging a wide-ranging Islamic coalition that encompasses huge territory, here at home our national and social ties are weakening. Our national strength is not as it used to be.
In the face of the deep, long-term processes in Egypt in particular and in the Arab world in general, the fundamental processes we experience here are a cause for concern: The things that bring us together are falling apart. The latest example is military reserve service, which is becoming less significant and valued. Indeed, the socioeconomic reward for this service is turning into a joke.
In the bottom line, our declining social strength is a major cause for concern. In many ways, we are currently resting on the laurels of past achievements, while the Arabs around us are watching this and building a future.
