Targeting the bazaar
Op-ed: Regime change in Iran may be possible if hardships forced on middle class become unbearable
On October 3rd the first evidences of the hardship following the current sanctions system have been exposed. Demonstrations have rocked the center of Tehran as local security forces have waged a raid against non-authorized cash dealers that have been attempting to fuel the black market with much needed foreign currency.
During the same day, Tehran's grand bazaar closed in solidarity with the demonstrators and further scuffles took place in the area. For the moment it is highly unlikely that the sanctions imposed on the country will result in any major social movement, as security forces and regime irregulars have tight control on the population and are able to pre-empt any mass protest. Nevertheless these events have highlighted a meaningful reality. If the militarized and religiously radical ruling class may push the country it controls toward irrational geo-political decisions, the commercial oriented middle class remains highly responsive to economic incentives.
The first week of October has also underlined the fact that the sanctions applied by the international community against the Iranian regime are having an effect on the budget Tehran is able to allocate to its international subversive operations. In fact, partially confirmed reports published by several international news outlets indicate that 257 Al Quds force members left Syria to reduce the cost of operations and restructure Iran's security apparatus.
These two pieces of information should not be overblown, as the current objective of the majority of sanctions targeting Iran is to curb the authoritarian and fundamentalist government’s will to develop military grade nuclear material. In addition to that, sanctions are aimed at deterring Iran from further formulating a foreign policy based on terrorist attacks and aggressive covert operations.
In this sense, the international sanctions aimed at Iran are not working as the nuclear program has only accelerated in volume. Furthermore, Tehran is in no way renouncing its long lasting support of murderous terrorist organizations. In other words, the targeted objectives will be the last assets the Iranian leadership will renounce.
Yet, recent events indicate that sanctions are more likely to create a strategic rift between the commercially oriented Iranian society and its religious-military leadership than to have a quick effect on the country’s foreign policy. Regime change from within may be possible if the hardships forced on the middle class become unbearable. The equation that must be presented to the Iranian people is the one where the price of an irrational and unsustainable foreign policy only hurts the long term interest of the traditionally commerce-oriented middle class.
Last non-military option
For that reason the rationale and nature of sanctions must evolve. The current system is based upon strong restrictions aimed at weapon transfers, financial dealings, import of dual use material, limitation of the energy sector and travel bans for selected personnel. If these sanctions must be kept in place and hardened they cannot keep on functioning alone as their results do not guarantee peace and security to the region.
A strong message must be sent to the Iranian people by sanctioning their core commercial activities. The cost of supporting a murderous and irrational regime must be so high that the business oriented and relatively moderate middle class, dependent on the country’s international relations, could no longer accept the ayatollah’s stance and should therefore push for a cessation of the present foreign policy.
In 2011, the peanut trade alone has brought to the country’s trading class revenue of $1.4 billion. Such a figure cannot be overlooked as Iran is increasingly falling into an economic crisis. All commercial sectors of its trading capabilities should be unambiguously targeted by international sanctions. By doing so the international community can achieve a double objective: a first step is to increase the likelihood of a series of demonstrations and protest-oriented events generated from within Iran, a second and more feasible aim is to sensibly decrease the level of revenue of the Islamic Republic, thus further limiting the budget it can allocate to its armed forces. This second point will rapidly hinder its ability to wage war or defend all of its nuclear structure and ballistic missiles sites.
The message must be clear: the objective is to save lives and curb the country’s murderous aspirations. Implementing such a strong sanctions regime against elements non-related to the government or the armed forces would certainly be a task that requires a relentless international effort, but the payoff makes this necessary action probably the last attempt to safeguard a peaceful option to the present crisis.
A military strike against the Iranian nuclear power is in no-one’s interest and if a credible and detailed option linked to clearly expressed red lines commonly shared by Israel and the United States remains the best deterrent against a nuclear armed Iran, sanctioning the Islamic Republic’s middle class may represent a last good will attempt to prevent a regional conflict.
The message must be clear, the task of ridding the Middle East of the Iranian nuclear and subversive threat should not only be an Israeli mission, a global coalition must target all instances of the country’s economic structure. If Iranian FM Ali Akbar Salehi is confident when saying that “We can count on the patience of our people” and that increased sanctions won’t affect Iranian stability, it is an absolute priority to put his certainty to a test.
The objective is not to punish the Iranian people without any limit; the goal is to exponentially increase the economic weight of sanctions in order to provide the middle class with enough rational incentives to influence its country’s foreign policy.
As the Institute for Science and International Security indicates, Iran may have enough nuclear material to produce a nuclear device within 2 to 4 months (additional time is needed to have a functioning weapon). The unanimous and immediate activation of unprecedented sanctions against the Iranian trading class is the last non-military option to interrupt the regime’s path to the destabilization of the entire region.
Riccardo Dugulin holds a Master degree from the Paris School of International Affairs (Sciences Po) and is specialized in International Security. He is currently working in Paris for a Medical and Security Assistance company. He has worked for a number of leading think tanks in Washington DC, Dubai and Beirut. Personal website: www.riccardodugulin.com
