This would mainly affect the Likud which stands to lose five mandates.
- Kahlon: I'm ready to start a new party
- Poll: Kahlon-Labor union likely to get 32 seats
- Op-ed: Likud's silencers
The poll further predicted that Kahlon could take away three Knesset seats from Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid and two from the Labor. Shas would not be affected and would win 13 mandates.
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Kadima however will not pass the election threshold regardless of Kahlon's decision, according to the poll.
The poll showed that in case Kahlon decides not to run, the Likud-Beiteinu would win 35 mandates, Labor – 24; Yesh Atid – 15; Shas – 13; Arab parties – 11; United Torah Judaism – 6; Habayit Hayehudi and National Union – 5; Meretz – 4, Ehud Barak's Independence -2 and Itamar Ben-Gvir and Arieh Eldad's party – 2.
If Kahlon does decide to form a new party, he would win 13 Knesset seats, the Likud-Beiteinu – 30; Labor – 22; Shas – 13; Yesh Atid – 12; Arab parties – 11; United Torah Judaism – 6; Habayit Hayehudi – 5; Meretz – 4, Independence 2; and Ben-Gvir and Eldad – 2.
Kahlon to announce decision on Sunday
According to the poll, Kahlon's candidacy would see the Left-Center bloc getting 49 mandates and the rightist bloc – 43 mandates. The blocs do not include Kahlon, Shas and Independence. If he decides not to run, the Left would get 57 Knesset seats and the Right 48.
Kahlon himself is set to announce his decision on Sunday. "In any case I won't return to the Likud," he told his associates.
He appeared unenthusiastic about the possibility of joining forces with the Labor or with Tzipi Livni. His associates said that he faces two options: running as the head of a party with a social agenda or going ahead with his original retirement plan and starting an AMP program in Harvard in April.
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