A party headed by Moshe Kahlon
would win 13 Knesset seats in the upcoming elections,
a poll conducted by Yedioth Ahronoth and Dr. Mina Zemach predicted Friday.
This would mainly affect the Likud
which stands to lose five mandates.
The poll further predicted that Kahlon could take away three Knesset seats from Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid and two from the Labor.
Shas would not be affected and would win 13 mandates.
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Kadima however will not pass the election threshold regardless of Kahlon's decision, according to the poll.
The poll showed that in case Kahlon decides not to run, the Likud-Beiteinu would win 35 mandates, Labor – 24; Yesh Atid – 15; Shas – 13; Arab parties – 11; United Torah Judaism – 6; Habayit Hayehudi and National Union – 5; Meretz – 4, Ehud Barak's Independence -2 and Itamar Ben-Gvir and Arieh Eldad's party – 2.
If Kahlon does decide to form a new party, he would win 13 Knesset seats, the Likud-Beiteinu – 30; Labor – 22; Shas – 13; Yesh Atid – 12; Arab parties – 11; United Torah Judaism – 6; Habayit Hayehudi – 5; Meretz – 4, Independence 2; and Ben-Gvir and Eldad – 2.
According to the poll, Kahlon's candidacy would see the Left-Center bloc getting 49 mandates and the rightist bloc – 43 mandates. The blocs do not include Kahlon, Shas and Independence. If he decides not to run, the Left would get 57 Knesset seats and the Right 48.
Kahlon himself is set to announce his decision on Sunday. "In any case I won't return to the Likud," he told his associates.
Asked how he explains the overwhelming support he is getting in the polls he said, "Seventy percent of the Israeli public is to the right in political issues and 70% is to the left on social issues. I'm right in the middle. Both in the political Right and the social Left."
He appeared unenthusiastic about the possibility of joining forces with the Labor or with Tzipi Livni. His associates said that he faces two options: running as the head of a party with a social agenda or going ahead with his original retirement plan and starting an AMP program in Harvard in April.