Israeli officials: We're facing escalation on Gaza front
Analysis: Facing pressure from both Palestinian Authority and Israel, Hamas is expected to open a front against Israel in the Gaza Strip, a conflict that is sure to make Islamic organization stronger.
Considering the fact the Ramadan month, that is starting in 10 days, was expected to lead to a substantial decrease in IDF arrests and raids, conducted as part of the ongoing effort to find three Israeli teens who were abducted a week ago, officials in Israel believe that the operational activity in the West Bank will turn into clandestine intelligence activity. The next stage in this ongoing operation would take place in the Gaza Strip, they say, and it seems like it would be a lot sooner than previously thought.
The bigger picture indicates that Hamas is now in an unclear position. In the past two years, the organization has been suffering from increasing regional isolation. To get out of this isolation, the Hamas leadership decided to take the path of reconciliation. With an attitude of "falling in order to rise again," Hamas has decided to make the following move: "We'll make peace with the Palestinian Authority, seemingly give up control of Gaza, wait for the elections, win, and then get the West Bank as well."
But reality is always much more complex. The intra-Palestinian reconciliation is moving very slowly: the crisis over salaries of tens of thousands of Hamas government employees continues, and the mechanism that is supposed to ensure they get paid has yet to be put into motion. At the same time, the Rafah border crossing is still closed, restoring the smuggling tunnels to their former glory remains but a dream, and Hamas' relations with Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's regime in Egypt are worse than ever. Life in Gaza is difficult, and the pressure on Hamas is only increasing.
On the other side, Israel has launched an extensive operation in the West Bank, and has taken advantage of the opportunity that presented itself following the kidnapping to conduct two operations at the same time: locating the kidnappers and kidnapped, while at the same time delivering a powerful blow to Hamas' infrastructure in the West Bank. It doesn't necessarily get Israel any closer to finding the abducted teens, but it definitely allows it to use this one-time opportunity to strike institutions, symbols and leaders of the organization, with the international community's support and the roaring silence of the Arab world in the background.
And if all of that wasn't enough, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas came out with a declaration that those who abducted the teens are trying to destroy the PA. "We will have a different kind of dialogue" with Hamas, Abbas said. It appears that it's not just Jerusalem that believes Hamas' infrastructure is behind the kidnapping, the PA does as well. And it is likely the dialogue the PA president is talking about will put the Palestinian reconciliation in danger.
This pressure coming from both ends shrinks Hamas' power, increases the pressure on the Islamic organization, and decreases support of it accordingly.
As the noose tightens around Hamas' neck, the response from Gaza is becoming more and more militant.
Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said Thursday that the coming days will prove that Hamas has the ability to fight back, implying that the organization has some powerful cards up its sleeve. He is talking about the ever-growing arsenal of rockets Hamas possesses. At present, Hamas is capable of hitting Tel Aviv, and perhaps even north of that, with dozens of rockets.
Recent history shows that Hamas emerges from rounds of violence stronger: public support of the organization increases, the understandings reached with Israel make life easier for Palestinians living in the Strip, and ties with Egypt grow warmer as Cairo mediates between Hamas and Israel.
It appears Hamas is at a low point in every possible scenario, with a fake reconciliation and without it, and so Israeli officials believe that another round of violence in the Gaza Strip is coming, sooner rather than later.
