IDF Chief of Staff Gantz speaking to soldiers on the field
Photo: IDF Spokseman
Gantz's anemones speech
Op-ed: It is unclear what made the IDF chief of staff deliver such an optimistic message to the residents of the south, when the fragile ceasefire's continuation was already in doubt.
"We have a hot summer. Fall will soon come. The rain will wash away the dust left by the tanks. The fields will turn green, and the south will be awash in red – in the positive sense of the word – in anemones, flowers, and stability, which will be here for many years to come" - IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz delivered this optimistic message to the residents of the south on Wednesday.
It is unclear what kind of delusion the heads of the defense system were operating under when they allowed the residents of the Gaza border communities to return to their homes last week.
The continuation of the fragile ceasefire - that has since dissipated - was already in doubt, making Gantz's speech seem in hindsight a bit reckless, and mostly responding to the Israeli public's desire to return to normalcy and the southern resident's longing to safely return home.
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Those who know Gantz know that he's an experienced, level-headed officer who does not rush to reckless announcements like "the tunnels would be destroyed within two to three days."
There's a well-known army convention that conclusions are left to the end - so it is unclear what made him conclude the fighting so quickly, and urge the residents of the south to return to their homes, even though the IDF's assessment was that Hamas could negotiate in Cairo while at the same time resuming fire at Israel. This same situation assessment raises the possibility of an attrition war against Israel and most against the south, using Hamas' most common (almost without limit) and cheap weapon: the mortars.
IDF Intelligence has recently noted a change of trend in Hamas' armed wing's operations with a move to an increased use of mortars instead of rockets, the latter could be intercepted by the Iron Dome.
As far as Hamas is concerned, this is a far more effective weapon. There is no real defensive solution to combat the mortars, which have claimed 11 lives and wounded dozens of Israel during Operation Protective Edge. Most of the time, there's no warning siren before the mortars fall.
That is why Hamas is concentrating its efforts and increases the mortar fire, to exhaust the Gaza border communities' residents, who are starting to show the first signs of breaking. One of the proofs of that is the crisis of trust that broke out between them and the political-military leadership.
Now back to Gantz, we have to ask: Did he have concrete reasons to think the rocket fire won't renew on Friday morning, when he made his calming speech two days earlier? And did he even realize his words on TV could factor into Hamas' situation assessment and affect its bargaining strategy in the negotiations in Cairo?
That speech could perhaps be attributed to Gantz as a personal citizen, who may have forgotten his status as chief of staff for a moment. He expressed the Israeli public's wishes, who desperately need some calm after a month of fighting in the midst of the summer vacation. Perhaps it's best if he chose other words. His words are carefully examined by the enemy.
Perhaps more than anything else, the chief of staff's words on the dust that would be washed away and the anemones that will bloom indicate on one troubling thing: The IDF doesn't really know how to assess Hamas' intentions correctly. It didn't do so before the fighting, it didn't do so during it and it probably doesn't know how to assess the enemy's intentions now either.
