'Don't ask if there are going to be elections. Ask if Netanyahu wants elections'
Photo: Amit Shabi
It's not what the public wants, it's what Netanyahu wants
Analysis: The coalition can solve all of its disputes, but if the prime minister decides this is a convenient time for him to call elections, he will find every reason to disband the government.
There is nothing more far-fetched than an alternative coalition with 61 members, in which Meretz Chairwoman Zahava Gal-On and Yisrael Beitenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman will sit side by side. Meretz would rather put a bullet in its head. It would be faster and less painful than the death blow it will be hit with following an alliance with Yisrael Beitenu.
It's not that such a government is impossible. On the contrary, this appears to be the natural coalition and there have already been such coalitions. But whoever believes that Lieberman is a man of his word, and Lieberman is the first to believe it, knows that the foreign minister will not let that happen. He has reiterated too many times that, as far as he is concerned, any change in the coalition would lead to elections.
Actually, there is another option of a government which is as far-fetched: A government which includes the Likud, Lieberman, Bayit Yehudi and the ultra-Orthodox parties.
Budget Fight
Moran Azulay, Avital Lahav
Finance minister's Yesh Atid party warring with Likud and Yisrael Beitenu over reform plans in KKL and the health system and partial privatization of government companies.
And besides, Lieberman's alliance with Finance Minister Yair Lapid is as strong as his word. Their schedules are filled with joint lunches, not to mention daily telephone conversations. Lieberman will not let Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fire Lapid and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and replace them with the haredi parties.
By the way, he is not the only one who is unprepared for this revolution. Shas Chairman Aryeh Deri told me last weekend that without elections he would not be willing to change the makeup of the coalition.
Is an alternative coalition possible? Lieberman won't let Netanyahu fire Lapid and Livni and replace them with the haredi parties (Photos: Shahar Azran, EPA, AP, Marc Neiman and Gil Yohanan)
And so, as an alternative government moves further away, the elections are getting closer, although no one should rush to buy a tailor-made suit just yet. And not only because there is no one in the coalition parties who is really interested in elections, but because of a much simpler reason: There is really no reason to disband the coalition, apart from the usual and quite irrelevant reasons of suspicion, mistrust and an inability to agree on almost anything. They can live with everything else.
You don't call elections because of disagreements between Yesh Atid and the Likud over the budget, which has already passed its first reading. You don't send the state into a whirlwind and an election campaign which will cost much more than any concession regarding the budget.
And as for the other disputed issue which has been threatening the coalition's integrity since Sunday – the Jewish nation-state bill – we should remember that this bill has already gone through so many changes that it's hard to remember that the first person who submitted it was Avi Dichter from the Kadima party when Livni was its chairwoman, and today she is the bill's main opponent.
In other words, there is nothing on the agenda that cannot be solved. The question, as always, is not what the public wants, but what Netanyahu wants. Because if the prime minister thinks this is the right time for him to disband the government and call elections, he will find good reasons even under the ground. And if he thinks this isn't a convenient time for him, for all kinds of reasons, he will be able to find a solution to each of the disputes on the agenda within five minutes.
So don't ask if there are going to be elections. Ask if Netanyahu wants elections. Because that, and only that, will determine where we are headed.
