Era of King Bibi is over
Analysis: Latest election polls show Israelis are willing to bid farewell to Benjamin Netanyahu and give someone else, like Isaac Herzog, a chance.
But we cannot ignore the trend in the two consecutive surveys published this week on the Knesset Channel and on Channel 10, and this trend provides plenty of dramatic political headlines.
The first headline has to do with the loud shattering of the anti-democratic illusion which has been created in Israel in the past few years, that there is no alternative to Benjamin Netanyahu.
The entire political system and the public, as well as the commentators and pollsters, have ruled time and again that he is second to none, that no one can replace him. Some even went as far as calling him King Bibi. But that era appears to be over.
The era of the kings is apparently behind us. For the first time in months, perhaps even years, the Israelis are prepared to bid farewell to the undisputed leader, to the king, and give a chance to someone new.
At the moment, that someone's name is Isaac Herzog, and more than the tie between him and Netanyahu indicates that Herzog is gaining strength, it signifies Netanyahu's consistent and dramatic weakening.
Within several months, with the help of a few bitter and fatal political and public moves, the Benjamin Netanyahu of 2014 has turned himself into the Bibi Netanyahu of 1999, the terrified, haunted and isolated Netanyahu. And the public is responding accordingly.
The second headline provided by the Channel 10 poll is the internal tie in the Likud among the general public. This is an amazing figure because for a very long time, everyone here believed that the Netanyahu brand is stronger than the Likud brand, and now it turns out that the Likud doesn’t lose a single Knesset seat without Netanyahu as its leader.
Netanyahu, the ultimate Mr. Security, Mr. Terror, Mr. Iran, Mr. Economy – Mr. whatever you'd like – is mainly Mr. Bitter. The Israelis are prepared to vote for the Likud, they are not sending this party to become a historical entry in Wikipedia, but they are indicating that it should consider changing its leader. In other words, they are telling the Likud: Nothing will happen if you change your leader.
The Likud members don't like Netanyahu. They vote for him out of a clear interest: He has put Likud in control of the government, so far. If someone else can do it, perhaps even better than him (and Reuven Rivlin is sitting in the President's Residence now mostly thanks to Gideon Sa'ar), the Likud members might, under these circumstances, send Netanyahu to his retirement.
The road is still long, and Sa'ar is still hesitating and struggling, listening and consulting. Tuesday evening's poll gave him a significant boost, but he has yet to decide if he should run against Netanyahu.
A few things worth noticing
Yesh Atid and Yair Lapid. Despite the political drama this party has gone through in the past few weeks, it hasn't been wiped out in the polls. Its foundation is still strong. It has lost half of its Knesset seats for now, but Lapid is convinced that things will be completely different in a month and a half.
Lapid has mainly busied himself trying to convince Livni not to team up with Herzog, but to join him instead. He was certain that together they would be able to attract more votes and replace Netanyahu. And Herzog and Livni were hoping that Lapid wouldn't open fire after the Labor-Hatnua union was completed.
Moshe Kahlon and his party, which is puffing up like a balloon from poll to poll. At the moment he is standing at a small two-digit number, 11 to 13 Knesset seats, and these numbers are changing.
Kahlon wants to be treated like the balance pivot, the force which will decide who will lead the state, and he will therefore invest most of his effort in the social and economic issues. Neither security nor peace. Only economy and society. Let me be the finance minister, he will say, and I will show you what I can do.
Kahlon should be careful, however, not to fall in love with the vagueness which has been characterizing his political conduct so far. It's time for us to hear more and more from him, see what he has to offer and which people he has chosen for his Knesset list.
The illusion which might be created in the Israeli centrist-leftist camp, that the elections have already been won. Isaac Herzog launched his election campaign in a crowded and smoky Tel Aviv bar. A stronghold of young party animals who have come to the big city to have a good time.
Elections are not won in a bar on Ben Yehuda Street, but in the periphery. In places like Dimona, Kiryat Gat, Nahariya and Safed. Herzog would do well to remember that.
